Chantal Hebert has an interesting article on Conservative prospects in Quebec (via Norman's Spectator). It is a tough dance...
...The upcoming parliamentary debate on same-sex marriage will do little for Tory prospects in Quebec, where Harper's defence of traditional marriage will only firm up the perception that the party is too socially conservative
to ever connect with mainstream Quebecers.
While Harper has kept his options open on missile defence, his party's natural inclination to back the U.S. plan runs counter to Quebec's rock solid opposition to the project.
Finally, Harper's stance on whatever package the Martin government puts forward for Bombardier could make or break his prospects in Quebec. As things stand today, Dumont would have a lot more to lose than to gain by commending the federal Conservatives to his supporters.
That is something Harper has been working hard to change over the past year.
His chances of becoming prime minister may well ride on his capacity to continue steering that course through the policy shoals of the next year.
Not to mention that Stephen Harper risks alienated Western voters if he cozies up to Quebec nationalists and it is hard to gauge how an aliance with the ADQ would play in Ontario. But a couple more years of PM Martin dithering could make all of this a moot point.
