I cross-posted the original post over at the Shotgun groupblog and it ellicited some interesting comments. One person mentioned that Liberal support had dropped in the Maritimes so I decided to check it out. According to Environics here are the latest poll numbers
Canada Wide
Liberal: 37% (36.7% from election)
CPC: 29% (29.6%)
NDP: 20% (15.7%)
BQ: 11% (12.4%)
Other: 4% (1.4%...the Green Tide rising)
So all in all not much different from the election in June 2004. But if you break out the numbers regionally they tell a different story.
In Atlantic Canada the Liberals are down 5% and the CPC is up 8% and the poll now stands at 40% LIB and 34% CPC. The numbers are not broken out any further but I imagine the leakage is mainly in Newfoundland & Labradour and Nova Scotia. This those 11 Liberal seat victories would be tough to repeat. If the election were held to today I doubt that the 22:7:1 seat split would hold.
In Quebec the Liberals are down 5% and the Bloq up 4%, though I don't know how much higher the BQ could go. The CPC is up to 12% support (inching closer to impact) in Quebec, with 10% in Montreal.
The Liberal stranglehold on Ontario continues with an increase of 1% to 45%. The CPC is down 2% to 30% and NDP down 1% to 20%. Interestingly the bulk of the Liberal support is in Toronto with an increase in the polls to 48% (increase of 9%) and the CPC down 7% to 31%. What this means to me is that Liberals are actually loosing support in Ontario outside of the 416 Area Code (i.e. their supportvote is even more urban that it was during the election - it is unclear how Environics defines Toronto and if it includes much of 905).
The Liberals are sharply down in Manitoba (7%), Saskatchewan (8%) and BC (6%), but the bulk of this is moving to NDP (+2%, +9%, +4%) and Green Party (up to 8% in BC).
Interesting stuff but who knows whether it matters or not. It is unclear how long we have to wait until the next election.
