There is some interesting video on the CTV.ca website regarding the latest SES poll which has shown the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives is decreasing in Canada. Furthermore the Liberals lost 10 percent in Ontario.
Nik Nanos:...big news is in battlefield Ontario.
Mike Duffy: What are the numbers they’re telling you?
NN: Well, interestingly enough in the last 90 days we have seen a 10 point drop in Ontario for the Grits. Even factoring in the margin of accuracy for the smaller sub-sample this is very significant.
MD: 10 points. And where has that Liberal vote gone?
NN: Well that, a lot of the Liberal vote has gone to the Conservatives with a little bit to the NDP. But the other thing that we noticed is that our polling on SSM shows that Ontarions are not as likely to support legally recognizing same-sex unions as compared to other Canadians.
MD: Really? You'd think with the big urban area of Toronto and all these downtown sophisticates - it's often in the past been portrayed as a kind of old vs. young, rural vs. urban, is that what your poll is showing?
NN: I wouldn't confuse Bay Street with Main Street. Once we get outside the GTA and the high-density urban areas SSM isn't resonating as well. Ontraions are 10% more likely than the national average to support a traditional version of marriage compared to recognizing same-sex rights (I would like to check this but their pdf is down, besides, I have already posted that this analysis is oversimplified)
MD: But is this type of question that people change their vote on? They may not like it but at the end of the day when they go in to cast their ballot will they vote against Liberal MPs because of this?
NN: Well we know from the same poll that we did that about 42% of Canadians consider this a ballot question but the problem comes out with how this actually pans out because it's one of those things were the impact may not be the actual ballot, it may be the impressions that they leave on the different parties. As to the one party being tolerant and another party being intolerant.
Did you follow that? The Liberals are down 3 points nationwide and a whopping 10 points in Ontario in the last 90 days. This support has mainly gone to the Conservatives According to another SES Ontario is more likely to support traditional marriage (with civil unions? not clear) than the national average. Therefore the Conservatives have carved out the correct position on SSM right? What are you dumb! Clearly this shows the Conservatives are the party of intolerance. I guess even polling firms never let the facts get in the way of a good argument.
MD: Well that is always the game of managing your public perception. How does Paul Martin get out of this, do you think?
How is that even a relevant question Mr. Duffy? How biased is that! Does he ask other equally irrelevant questions like how can Stephen Harper continue to capitalize on this momentum? Or how can Jack Layton finally break through? How about a relevant and unbiased question like what impact will this trend have on the minority parliament and the likelihood of an early election?
NN: Well I think he falls back on the strategy that managed to let him pull a rabbit out of the hat during the last election. Remember in the last election when the election was on ethics in government and the sponsorship scandal the Liberal numbers went south but as soon as they shifted to social issues they managed to fight back so in a way they've got a bit of a franchise there that they can resuscitate that old coalition they've got a fighting chance.
Cross-posted to Shotgun.
