In today's Toronto Star there was an article based on a new EKOS poll. Here are some of the more interesting bits from the EKOS analysis:
...Martin's Liberals have tentatively elevated themselves into majority territory for the first time since the election. However, their propects are still being shackled by the continuing corrosive influence of the sponsorship scandal. Otherwise, the LPC is far more in line with the Canadian centre on key issues than their principal rivals.
The Conservatives, on the other had, have further distanced themselves from the mainstream/centre since the election, which does not auger will for prospects of deposing the Liberals. Indeed, there is some sense that teh CPC are in decline, with little evidence that their current positions on same-sex provide any opportunity to break out of their existing constituency.
Moreover, althought the CPC "owns" the ethics franchise, outside of Alberta, this is largely a spent force. In fact, an ethics focus in any looming election will probably kill that party's propects in Quebec, where voters have no interest in further talk about sponsorship.
This is pretty damning analysis although I think it may be exaggerated slightly. On the Politics Canada site you can find a summary of all of the recent polls and this new EKOS poll is not that disimilar to the SES Poll which had the political pundits asking "How does Paul Martin get out of this, do you think?"
EKOS: Lib 40, Con 27, NDP 19
SES: Lib 38, Con 29, NDP 17, BQ 11
Election 2004: Lib 36.7, Con 29.6, NDP 15.9, BQ 12.4
When you look at the fact the Conservatives are polling 1-3% lower than their results in the election with eight more months of sponsorship, the DART fiasco, assymetrical federalism and dithering, maybe it is correct to conclude that SSM is killing the Conservatives. Again, back to the Toronto Star.
It paints the picture of an official opposition stuck on the wrong
side of the policy fence under a leader whose insistence on digging in his heels in the social conservative mud of trench war against same-sex marriage is failing to move the party forward. At a time when the ruling Liberals are operating under solid cloud cover, the Conservative opposition continues to score more poorly than the government party on just about every crucial public opinion front.
The party is no closer to breaking the 30 per cent ceiling it hit upon in the last election.
There does seem to be a ceiling at 30%. And this evidence provides more proof that the next election will indeed be "crooks, not fascists".
