First the good news. Compas released a poll today and upward momentum of the Liberals/downward slide of the Conservatives has ceased. The latest results are as follows:
LIB 38%
CON 29%
BLOC 12%
NDP 18%
Other than a slight uptick by the Liberals and NDP, these results are practically identical to last years election results (36.7%, 29.6%, 12.4%, 15.7%). Which, of course, is the bad news. Seems the polling numbers are sticky, even with the poor leadership (opinion, not fact) displayed by PM Martin. I am interested to see the polling results over the next couple to see how the effect of the BMD decision. From there it is the Liberal and Conservative policy conventions, so March will be an interesting month poll wise.
As I mentioned last week there is a Political Scientist at McMaster (does anyone know his name?) who is claiming a June election. If this Compas poll is correct then the Liberal momentum he was sighting is not there and the results would be practically identical. In which case I don't see an election. I guess we will have to see where the polling numbers are pointing by then.
