Mike Brock plays the part of the tease with this info:
I can't wait to see an official poll. And neither can the Opposition Parties (hat-tip NealeNews).
...In the political shadows, the Conservatives are preparing to poll at a frantic pace and see whether surveys give them a chance of winning an imminent election.
Layton, the NDP leader, said the fate of the Liberal government may be tied to what the polls say.
"We're going to monitor how Canadians are feeling about it day by day and make our important decisions accordingly," he warned.
Update: There has been a snap poll in Quebec by Leger.
BQ: 49% (48.9% in 2004 Election)
Liberal: 25% (down 10% from last poll - 33.8% in 2004 Election)
Conservative: 13% (8.8% in 2004 Election)
NDP: 11% (4.6% in 2004 Election)
Looks the federalist vote has leaked entirely to the Conservatives and NDP and the BQ vote may have a ceiling of 49%.
...More than 8 out of ten Quebeckers follow the Gomery Commission and 52% recognize the usefulness of the Commission despite the costs of conducting it. This is not surprising, since 81% of Quebeckers say they are scandalized by the revelations made before the Gomery Commission and 57% trust in its outcome.However, 75% of Quebeckers feel that their income tax money is not well spent by the Government of Canada, as opposed to 22% who think it is.
Update II: Environics has released a pre-Brault testimony poll. It has good news an bad news for most Parties.
Canada
Liberal: 36% (36.7%-Election 2004)
Conservative: 30% (29.6%-Election 2004)
NDP: 19% (15.7%-Election 2004)
Bloc Quebecois: 11% (12.4%-Election 2004)
The gap was closed by one-point nationally but there were some large regional shifts. The Liberals gained 6-points in Atlantic Canada stengthening the gap to 16-points. The Liberals gained 11-points in Saskatechewan, taking a 5-point lead in the process. Finally, the Liberals have gained 6-points in British Columbia, extending the gap to 9-points.
Alberta remains the strongest area for the Conservatives where a 2-point gain has stretched their lead to 28-points. The Conservatives also gained 4-points in both Ontario and Manitoba. The Liberal lead in Ontario is reduced to 8-points and Manitoba is practically a dead-heat.
The Quebec numbers were pretty steady.
The good news for the Conservatives is Ontario were they are closing the gap and with 106 seats this is very significant (the gap has even narrowed in Toronto but it is not clear how T.O. is defined). The bad news is that there was no post-Convention bounce and they are losing traction in BC and Sask. Although the numbers are still almost identical to Election 2004, the vote has shifted regionally enough to make things interesting.
Again, pre-Brault!
Update II: Ipsos-Reid has released polling information with data from a couple of days before the release of the Brault testimony and data from the night it was released. (Hat-tip Damian Penny)
Liberal: 34% (36.7%-Election 2004)
Conservative: 30% (29.6%-Election 2004)
NDP: 15% (15.7%-Election 2004)
Bloc Quebecois: 10% (12.4%-Election 2004)
Green: 7%
Other: 4%
Don't Know: 11%
A couple of things jump out at me. First, the Conservative 30% ceiling still exists. The Gomery Inquiry is hurting the Liberals but the Conservatives do not seem to be gaining as a result. It is time for the Conservatives to sell themselves has something more than non-Liberal. The second thing is that NDP has slipped in the polls with their support moving to the Green Party. My assumption is that much of that is in British Columbia (actually according to the CTV video the Green Party is up to 8% in Quebec). This could really harm an NDP breakthrough. Finally 15% of the vote is parked and/or for grabs. They may be just as likely to not vote than go for an opposition party.
Here are some quotes from the Globe and Mail story.
The Ipsos-Reid poll interviews began Tuesday, as rumours of explosive testimony under publication ban at the Gomery Commission were reported in the media and on the internet. A quarter of the interviews were conducted Thursday night, after the ban was lifted and the details of advertising executive Jean Brault's damning testimony hit television airwaves.
"The problem might be that this is the top of the hill," said Ipsos-Reid President Darrell Bricker. "What this shows is the first significant movement in voter opinion since the end of the last election campaign."
"It does seem to be happening on the basis of what was coming out of Gomery. There was no other factor that would suggest it."
