O.K., I am a bit of a math geek and I decided to have some fun with Excel and the latest polling numbers from Ipsos Reid. The polling information has the Liberal-Conservative gap in Ontario down to 38-34. On election night it was 44.7-31.5. I decided to see what would happen if you reduced Liberal support 15% across the board and increase Conservative support by 8% (I actually adjusted the NDP numbers as well). I know this is not scientific but it is fun nonetheless.
Using the method above the Liberals would lose 22 Ontario
seats, 20 to the Conservatives and 2 to the NDP. Here is the list of the Liberals who would have lost.
Russ Powers
Aileen Carroll
Colleen Beaumier
Lloyd St. Amand
Paddy Torsney
Jerry Pickard
Gary Carr
Tony Valeri
Beth Phinney
Lynn Myers
Rose-Marie Ur
Anthony Rota
Paul Macklin
Marc Godbout
David McGuinty
Marlene Catterall
Andy Mitchell
Walt Lastewka
Paul DeVillers
Tony Ianno
Judi Longfield
