I just caught the tail-end of a CPAC report where Peter Van Dusen reported that a new poll will be released tonight. It looks like it may be this poll from CBC/Environics
Conservative: 33%
Liberal: 27%
NDP: 24%
Bloc Quebecois: 11%
Green Party: 2%
First of all, 33% is very important for the Conservatives. If this number is confirmed by other polls it shows that they have finally surpassed their 30% ceiling. Also the fact that the NDP are moving up will change the whole dynamics of the election.
In the last election NDP Leader Layton bet the farm on "a central role in the government". He thought that the Liberals would win a minority (got that part right) and that the NDP seats would be enough to form a coalition government (whoops). Instead potential NDP voters flipped at the last minute and marginalized the NDP.
Another Liberal minority looks increasingly doubtful so there is not coalition play to be had this time around. Furthermore the "progressive" voter could easily break to the NDP and more so. As a result the NDP could gain more seats than they have in decades. Are they really going to hang potential MPs out to dry by letting the Liberals off the hook again? I guess the Liberals will face a sustained attack from the right and from the left this time around.
Update: So I am trying to fit this new data into my spreadsheet but they report information from the "prairies". What does a voter in Winnipeg have to do with a voter in Calgary? These provinces vote pretty differently. Be nice if they broke it out. Same goes for "Atlantic Canada". Anyways, I have provided an updated prediction on the top right of the page (above the Flag).
One thing I forgot to mention about the renewed strenghth of the New Democrats is that they will now want an election and may vote with the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois on a non-confidence vote. This would take another arrow out of PM Martin quiver.
...Senior Tory sources
confirmed yesterday that NDP support for a no-confidence motion is considered politically, if not numerically, essential in order to dilute Liberal accusations the Conservatives are working with separatists to bring down the minority government.
NDP Leader Jack Layton and his MPs appeared energized in Question Period yesterday after word leaked out the CBC poll shows the party is clearly picking up support.
Update II: Les Whittington of the Toronto Star picks up on the election speculation and the renewed strength of the NDP (hat-tip Norman Spector)
...All the public opinion polls have shown the NDP gaining strength (although often in such polls, Canadians "park" their votes with the NDP when they are mad at the ruling party).
"The Canadian people are growing increasingly angry and disgusted ... I just don't see that there's going to be some kind of stampede towards a Liberal party that has betrayed Canadians' trust," NDP Leader Jack Layton said. "I think they're in deep trouble and rightly so. People are rapidly reaching their own verdicts on this government and this Prime Minister."
Update III: I heard Wilfrid Laurier Political Science Professor Barry Kay on 570 News this morning and he predicts the Conservatives at 120 seats and the Liberals in the low 80's. He has not factored in the latest CBC/Environics poll though. It is kinda fun when you can get pretty much the same numbers as a pro.
