The Decima poll released today confirms that other polls of last week showing the Liberals out in front.
Liberal: 32%
Conservative: 29%
NDP: 20%
Bloc Quebecois: 15%
But they ask the question (or reveal the results) that no other poll has. What is the support of likely voters?
Conservative: 30%
Liberal: 29%
NDP: 21%
Ask yourself who will have an easier time firing up their base and getting out their vote - especially if we have a July election. Many (rightfully) decry the declining voting rate but in this election it will most likely work to the Conservatives advantage. Can the Liberals drive up the Conservatives negatives any more that they already have? Unlikely. Will the PM Martin's personal negatives and the Liberal Party's negatives go up? Likely.
And in the understatement of the day:
...Anderson noted the Liberals could only claim a minority in last June's election despite a 20-point lead in Ontario prior to the campaign.
"It's clearly impossible to predict how an election would turn on these numbers," said the pollster.
Update: I have updated my prediction based on their (tighter) Ontario numbers.
