So I got to thinking about the latest polling numbers are how the gap (4%) is underestimated due to the Quebec effect. What I mean by this is the BQ will take
up 69 seats in the next election, leaving the Liberals with 6 in Quebec. Any lead the Liberals have in Quebec over the Conservatives and NDP is a waste unless they can gain another 10% there (good luck!).
I was curious what the gap was if Quebec was excluded from the numbers (assuming same voter turnout by region as the 2004 election). Here is what the numbers for the ROC looks like.
Conservatives: 38%
Liberals: 31%
NDP: 22%
I realize these numbers are meaningless (since the only breakdown of importance is regional - actual riding by riding) but it does show that the reason the Conservatives seem to have a 31% ceiling nationally is due to their soft numbers in Quebec.
