That looks to be the result of any close vote tonight. However if the CBC is correct (hat-tip NealeNews) this number could have the government falling.
...London-Fanshawe MP Pat O'Brien has issued an ultimatum, saying he and an unnamed Liberal MP will vote against the minority Liberal government in a series of confidence votes Tuesday night unless the same-sex marriage bill is delayed.
Here is how it adds up:
Liberals (132) + NDP (19) + Parrish = 152
Conservatives (98) - Stinson - Chatters - Grewal + BQ (54) + O'Brien + Kilgour = 151
So if one more Liberal flips it an August election. I have been thinking over the last couple of days that this might actually happen. I hear there is no "buzz" on The Hill but I would not be surprised...I think the government wants to fall. We will see if the Conservatives pull back another MP or two. Think about it, this may be the Liberal perfect storm.
- Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois join together to bring down the government
- Have SSM to campaign on since this will have actually defeated the government
- Have Health Care as an issue
Weird...now the Conservatives are the ones who will have to act to avoid the election they wanted 5 weeks ago. How times change.
Update: Could be a big nevermind. One BQ member will not be in Parliament tonight. Teh government will pass tonight unless something very weird happens. Also, I just say MP O'Brien on CBC Politics and he said he is not negotiating for another MP - he is speaking with 2-3 other Liberals MPs (um...MP O'Brien which is it, 2 or 3?) but they will vote their own way independent of MP O'Brien.
Update II: Paul Wells has a brilliant post regarding this.
