As I mentioned yesterday it is a little hard to believe the Environics poll when polls such as the Decima Poll linked to on Angus Reid seem to be the norm.
Liberals: 39%
Conservatives: 24%
NDP: 19%
BQ: 14%
To be honest, I don't believe this poll either. I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. If I had to guess I would say the Liberals are 5-7 points up. A gap that is inflated due to the fact the Prime Minister has disappeared throughout much of the last few weeks. Once things heaten up again in the fall the gap will tighten.
Update: Right Ho! agrees with me on this.
...My view? The Liberals are probably ahead by 6-7 percentage points. The Conservatives are polling better in the western provinces as of late, and are slowly recapturing lost support in Atlantic Canada. The problem for the Conservatives is, once again, Ontario. From what I've heard, the Liberals are making gains in some Conservative areas, although they are losing support in the 519 area, surprisingly enough.
I happen to live in 519 and many 519 seats are up for grabs. The London area seems to be more fertile ground for the Conservatives but I would not be surprised if at least one of the three KW seats switched to the Conservatives. My riding already has MP Gary Goodyear and he has done a good job promoting the party locally. I hear him on 570 News quite often and is a strong speaker for the party.
