Or alternatively titled, more fun with Strategic Counsel polls. I decided to put together a couple more charts - this time with regional numbers. If you compare the SC poll with the results of the 2004 Election you can in Ontario both the Liberals and Conservatives are down marginally with that support being bled to the NDP and Green. At this point the trendlines for the NDP and CPC are in the reverse direction.
It is much the same story in Quebec. Liberals are weaker in Quebec, not due to increased BQ strength, but to bleeding off of the federalist vote to the CPC, NDP and Green, with the CPC seeing the bulk of the gain. It seems the BQ vote has a ceiling in the 50-51% range and how well the Liberals will do will be in large part how much of the federalist vote they can get back from the CPC, NDP and Green.
But I reiterate my earlier point. In the grand scheme of things the party support numbers are trading in a pretty narrow range. As such, getting out the vote will be a key determining factor when the next election comes around.
