According to the latest Decima poll, the Ontario numbers are:
Liberals: 43%
Conservatives: 33%
For the numbers to add up the NDP would have to be at ~19%
On Election 2004 the vote percentages were:
Liberals: 44.7%
Conservatives: 31.5%
NDP: 18.8%
Green: 4.5%
There were many ridings where the margin of victory was very tight so even this modest movement in the polls represents some seat movement. Assuming the above numbers are correct the seat count would move from:
Liberals: 75
Conservatives: 24
NDP: 7
to:
Liberals: 67
Conservatives: 29
NDP: 8
Independent: 2 (MPs O'Brien and Parrish - hard to say what will actually happen here)
If a couple more points swing away from the Liberals it would get even more interesting.
Update: I decided to look at how Decima Polls tend to compare with Strategic Counsel. (I would like to use Ipsos-Reid as well but I need a more current poll from them). The display is not as clear as I would like - the darks lines are Decima results and lighter lines are Strategic Counsel.
As you can see Decima has consistently had the Liberal/Conservative gap higher than Strategic Counsel. Which makes me think that the internal Conservative poll is pretty accurate. More importantly, look at the trend lines. Both point to a narrowing of the gap and a slow decline in NDP fortunes. To be fair, the NDP decline is relative to the spring. They are still up from their result in Election 2004.
