The National Post has commissioned a new Ipsos-Reid poll:
Liberals: 37%
Conservatives: 27%
NDP: 17%
Bloc Quebecois: 14%
Green: 4%
And presented a fancy chart the looks an awful lot like the charts I have been putting together the last week or so. Never one to keep my ego in check, I am going to say the Post was inspired by my blog ;).
When I get a chance I will input these numbers into my spreadsheet. The other great thing is the regional breakdowns (hey, I asked for that too). But before I do let me say that British Columbia has become a serious problem for the Conservatives - they are polling third:
Liberals: 36%
NDP: 34%
Conservatives: 23%
Green: 6%
What a second...Ipsos-Reid has the Conservatives trailing the Liberals in Manitoba/Saskatchewan.
Liberals: 36%
Conservatives: 34%
NDP: 22%
I have a hard time believing that one.
Update: Here are how the seats would line up (approx.) if Ipsos-Reid is correct:
Liberals: 137
Conservatives: 84
Bloc Quebecois: 67
New Democrats: 20
So Quebec losses for the Liberals would be made up for in gains in British Columbia and a couple elsewhere. However, Darrell Bricker of Ipsos-Reid sees it this way:
...In the key battleground of Ontario, where the election is expected to be decided, the Liberals, at 46 per cent, have a hefty 15-point lead over the Conservatives, at 31 per cent, although Bricker says the Tories are within only about five points of turning the tables in their favour.
He says the "magic number" in Ontario for the Tories is 30 per cent, which they have now surpassed, after which each point produces a significant number of new seats. They would only need a handful of points to win another 25 or 30 seats, which would effectively hand the Conservative party a minority government, he said.
"So if he moves up another four or five and the Liberals come down four or five, we have a different prime minister, just based on what's going on in Ontario."
