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6 points?

There is a new poll from Pollara (without full details) that has the Liberal-Conservative gap down to 6 points. Without seeing the full numbers it is hard to comment on but I will say that judging from past Pollara polls it appears they tend to over-report Conservative support. Well, at a minimum they tend to report Conservative support than the other polling firms.

To be fair, on April 22 they released a poll that was the same as an Ipsos-Reid poll the next day. But in May they were an outlier.

Update: CTV is now reporting some numbers. Election 2004 results in brackets.

Liberals: 36% (36.7%)
Conservatives: 30% (29.6%)
New Democrats: 19% (15.7%)
Bloc Quebecois: 11% (12.4%)

Ontario
Liberals: 42% (44.7%)
Conservatives: 32% (31.5%)

British Columbia
Liberals: 35% (28.6%)
Conservatives: 33% (36.3%)
New Democrats: 27% (26.5%)

There is something a little strange about this poll.

...the Liberals continued to trail badly in Quebec, where Gilles Duceppe's Bloc Quebecois maintained a commanding lead nearing 50 per cent, with the Grits well below 30 per cent.

In 2004 Quebec was BQ: 48.9%, LIB: 33.8%. Somehow BQ support has gone up (or remained the same) in Quebec but their support is down nationally. That doesn't make any sense. Seems to me you add at least 1.4% to BQ support - taken directly from the Liberals. So the gap may actually be closer to 5 points.

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on October 7, 2005 4:36 PM.

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