I have upgraded my prediction spreadsheet and have input the latest Pollara poll into it. Here are the results.
Liberals: 118
Conservatives: 98
Bloc Quebecois: 65
New Democrats: 25
Independents: 2
Right now Liberal losses in Quebec and Ontario are somewhat being made up in British Columbia - which could be worth staying up for come election night.
With British Columbia being some much in play the "magic number" is 6. That is what the gap in Ontario needs to be narrowed to for the Conservatives to have a chance in the next election.
If the Conservatives can hold most of BC or if Liberal gains come at the expense of the NDP then the "magic number" could be increased to 7-points. It is 10 now. If these polls hold up it will be a very interesting election.
But 6-months is an eternity in politics.
