I've been fooling around a little more with polling and something just jumped out at me. Many commenters have noticed that the CPC seems to have a ceiling at 30% in the polls. What I've just discovered is that this is an actual ceiling, due to poor support for the CPC in Quebec and is inconsequently in the next election if the CPC goal is to win a minority government.
Quebec accounted for approximately 25% of the votes in the last election. The Conservatives polled at 8.8% in Quebec - a very paltry share from a region that makes up a quarter of the National poll numbers. Let me put this another way. If you exclude the Quebec results from the last election the party's results are:
Liberals: 37.6%
Conservatives: 36.7%
New Democrats: 19.8%
A 7-point national gap is down to 1-point if Quebec is excluded. No one expects the CPC to do much better in Quebec the next time around. Also, the Conservatives did about as well as can be expected out of Alberta, Manitoba and Sasketechewan. I doubt the results in Atlantic Canada will be much different next time around - and wild swings are required in Atlantic Canada to show up in National polls. For the Conservatives it really comes down to Ontario and British Columbia (as long as the Bloc Quebecois continues to poll at around 49% and the Liberals at around 29% in Quebec).
In such a circumstance this is what is required for a Conservative minority government (under optimal conditions)
Liberals: 34%
Conservatives: 30%
New Democrats: 18.5%
Bloc Quebecois: 12.5%
Notice that this is close to the current Pollara poll and the internal Conservative poll. I realize that this is all moot since an election won't be happening until the spring but any poll that has the Liberal-Conservative gap at 5-points or less spells serious trouble for the Liberals.
Furthermore, unless PM Martin can bring his numbers up to the low 40% range he is a spent force. His days as Prime Minister may be numbered. Can he possibly survive anything but a Liberal majority? Unless they get massive gains in Quebec is it even possible?
