Greg Weston is opining that a fall election may be in the offing after all - and you can thank David Dingwall for it.
...If the result of Dingwall and Gomery is the perfect storm for the opposition parties, and a devastating blow for the Liberals, just about anything could happen.
A longtime Liberal strategist confided last week: "There's definitely a growing concern that the Dingwall factor could be a lot deeper and stronger with people than maybe it seemed at first. Frankly, some people are more worried about that than Gomery.
"If that's the case, and Gomery comes in hitting all the same raw nerves -- extravagant spending, cronyism, patronage, entitlement, that kind of stuff -- the polls could certainly take some serious swings."
...It goes like this: The day after Gomery unleashes the wrath of his Adscam report, all three opposition leaders head to the microphones with an ultimatum.
With all the fury they can muster for the camera, they announce that in light of the Gomery report, the opposition parties can no longer support Martin's minority government.
In fact, they say, the Liberals are obviously so morally bereft, so utterly corrupt, so yadda-yadda, that they have lost their mandate to govern.
Then the hammer: The three opposition leaders demand an immediate confidence vote in the Commons, and announce their parties will boycott Parliament until one is held.
Suddenly, every day the Liberals refuse, the more they will look as though they are trying to hide from voters.
As a Liberal strategist told me with some understatement: "I think we would be hard-pressed to resist."
If the tactic is successful, an election called in the first days of November could be held in the second week of December, well ahead of Christmas.
Likely? I don't think so. In fact, I don't think there is much point to this until after NDP Leader Layton and the Prime Minister finish their meeting. Is their meeting to make a deal or to make a split? That's the question in my mind. In the end I think it will be an illusory agreement but an agreement nonetheless. If they don't reach an agreement then the NDP's bluff will have been called and the NDP would have to vote to bring down the government. I don't think want to go there. They are (almost) in the position they dream of - holding the balance of power and moving the Liberals to the left. If an election is called and the Liberal minority is weakened (or Heaven forbid a Conservative minority) their "central role in Parliament" is finished.
I assume that their dream result is a spring election that results in a strengthened Liberal minority in which they can enter a formal coalition. So do I see Greg Weston's scenario happening? No. But we will know more later in the week.
