Chantal Hebert offers up a timely column (to me) because it explains the bet I made this weekend (for an espressso) over the future of the political leaders. The crux of the bet was that I don't think the Liberals can win a majority in the next election and that Paul Martin will be replaced as Liberal leader after he fails (for a second time) to delivery a majority.
...Deprived of a majority for the second time in a row, the Liberals would undergo the same exercise in relatively short order. For the first time in decades, they do not have a leader-in-waiting.
Over the past 15 years, they have become Canada's only big-tent party. That status has implications that the Liberals have so far failed to grapple with. They are increasingly paralyzed by their attempts to be all things to all people.
If the next election turns out to be a repeat of the last one, the only certainty is that in its aftermath, Canada's two main parties will be too busy healing themselves to resume inflicting pain on each other in Parliament.
Ms. Hebert speculates about what would happen if the same Parliament was elected. My gut tells me it will be something less than the same - meaning, at a minimum, a weaker Liberal minority. Recently Paul Wells speculated that Mr. Harper's chances of becoming Prime Minister were 40-60. This seems reasonable enough. And it will take that 40% chance for Mr. Harper to keep his job as well.
