The consensus wisdom is that the next election will be won or lost in "seat-rich" Ontario. With 106 seats it is easy to see why the pack goes there. But if you dig a little deeper you can see that in reality the election will come down to a lot fewer seats than that. And contrary to what you might think, it is not 905 that will make the difference, it is 519, 705 and 613.
Let me break it down to the ridings that matter in the next election.*
519
Brant
Chatham-Kent-Essex
Kitchener-Conestoga
London-Fanshawe: (more likely to go to the NDP)
Middlesex-Kent-Lambton: (a reader writes that this should be an easy win for the Conservatives)
Sarnia Lambton
705
Barrie
Nipissing-Timiskaming
Parry Sound-Muskoka
Simcoe North
613
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell (readers question if this seat is winnable)
Northumberland-Quinte West (a reader confirms that this seat is winnable - "There is quite a conservative momentum in that riding now and as long as we keep laying out a good platform and residents get to meet Rick in person he has a very good shot of winning the riding")
Ottawa-Orleans
Ottawa West-Nepean: (Word is that the Liberals have written off this seat)
905
Halton
Newmarket-Aurora
Whitby-Oshawa: Commenters have suggested that Jim Flaherty should be able to flip this riding
289
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
Burlington
That is 18 seats that the Conservatives could take in the next election. Right now the Liberals have a 38 seat lead over the Conservatives (assuming the independents as Liberals). In Quebec the Liberals stand to lose about 10 seats. Assume they lose their 2 seats in Alberta. The gap is down to 26. The 18 ridings listed above are enough to make up that difference with enough to spare for potential loses to the NDP in British Columbia.
The next Prime Minister could be determined by the outcome of these 18 ridings.
Update: Based on what I have received so far you can scratch two ridings off of the list. One to the NDP and one to the Liberals. Further information suggest to add Whitby-Oshawa but that will offset by losing Oshawa to the NDP (is Sid Ryan running again).
So here is my challenge to you the reader. If you have any inside knowledge of these ridings drop me a line (greg.staples@rogers.com) or send me a link to your blog. I would like to keep an eye on these ridings and any help you can provide would be greatly appreciated.
* all of this analysis is based on seats that the Liberals could lose to the Conservatives. There are several seats that the Liberals could lose to the NDP but for now they are ignored. Also, I assuming that Conservatives hold their present seats (this is a work in progress and will be updated as I go)
