The Liberals are in a lot of trouble. At least if the latest polling numbers (h/t Bourque) from Ipsos-Reid can be believed. Global National story here (scroll down and click Jacques Bourbeau on the latest polls, RealPlayer req'd) .
...Ipsos-Reid president Darrell Bricker said yesterday one reason for the Liberal decline is an apparent voter backlash to the government's pre-election strategy of promising billions in tax cuts and new spending programs.
"It underscores the fact that people believe the Liberals are willing to spend money to buy votes. And it's one of the things that came out of the sponsorship inquiry. So it highlights the character elements of the Liberals people don't like.
For opposition voters, it's throwing a log on the fire for them and steeling their resolve to kick these guys out. And for people who are voting for the government, it's making them nothing but squeamish".
Ipsos-Reid reports the following national numbers:
Liberals: 34%
Conservatives: 30%
New Democrats: 16%
Bloc Quebecois: 15%
Greens: 5%
To win the Liberals need to stem losses in Quebec, make gains in British Columbia and hold on to Ontario. From these poll numbers they are failing in 2 out of 3. In Quebec they are down 59%-23% to the Bloc Quebecois. Their support in BC is collapsing to 26% whereas the Conservatives and NDP are tied at 33%.
With these numbers in mind, the only way for the Liberals to still be at 34% is for their Ontario to have held steady at the 45% support they received in the last election. The Conservatives look to up marginally and the NDP down marginally. I can't confirm this until I find a version of the article with the Ontario numbers broken out though.
At a minimum, these numbers represent a statistical tie in "English Canada" with the Liberals having a slight lead in potential seat-count. A 2-3% swing in voter support in Ontario could make all the difference in the next election. As I have said before it will come down to about 20 seats in areas in Ontario with a mix of urban and rural voters. Places like the suburbs of London, Kitchener and Ottawa and in former Conservative strong-holds like Parry Sound and North Bay. If large areas of 905 start going Conservatives then the Liberals are done.
