First off, I've never heard of Robbins Sce Research so until I hear otherwise you can take this with a grain of salt. But...the sample size, 18,443, is HUGE.
At this moment which of the following federal political leaders and their parties are you supporting?
Jack Layton and NDP 22.30 %
Paul Martin and Liberals 32.10 %
Stephen Harper and Conservatives 32.21 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc 13.33 %
...Using averaging based on trends I would judiciously assess seats totals based on the results of this poll as follows: Conservatives (113), Liberals (108), Bloc (64), NDP (27).
With these numbers as our guide it appears that the next election is mostly about who will win government, the Conservatives or the Liberals. We are reasonably certain of two things, namely the Liberals will have fewer seats in the next parliament and the conservatives will have more.
If I were a betting man (h/t to Ralph Klein) I could believe that the actual results could be pretty close to the above numbers. I think the BQ will do a bit better than 13.3% but a 32-32 tie would not shock me at all.
h/t M.K. Braaten
