At least that is how Nik Nanos of SES Research is characterizing the election.
...The early news in this campaign is the Layton/NDP slide. Based on our polling completed last night Buzz Hargrove's comments have likely had an impact. Both the NDP ballot numbers and the percentage of Canadians who think Layton would make the best PM have experienced downward pressure. What is emerging at this point of the campaign is a two way race between the Liberals and the Conservatives.
Of course this is strategic by the Liberals. Their desire is to use the fear of National Unity to make Quebec a two-way race, thereby consolidating the federalist vote and regaining lost ground. Similarly, the Liberals want a two-race in English Canada, to consolidate the left vote and solidify their chances against a united right. Will it work?
Liberals: 36% (+2)
Conservatives: 31% (+3)
New Democrats: 14% (-6)
Bloc Quebecois: 14% (NC)
Greens: 5% (+1)
Coupled with Liberal support of 31% in Quebec (+7%) the early answer is yes, it is working.
