The UBC Election Stock Market is up and running (h/t David Akin) and it has some interesting results. At the time of this post the Last Price for the Popular Vote Market is:
Liberals: 34.5%
Conservatives: 33.2%
New Democrats: 18.5%
Bloc Quebecois: 12.5%
Other: 5.3%
This is actually pretty close to what I thought the result would be going in. I think the BQ support will be closer to 15% and the Liberals leading the Conservatives 33-32%.
Another interesting Last Price is for the Seat Market:
Liberals: 43% (132)
Conservatives: 33% (102)
New Democrats: 6.2% (19)
Bloc Quebecois: 17.8% (55)
I think the BQ will be closer to 61 and the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck in the 110's.
So I would sell the Liberals short (if you are allowed) and buy the Bloc Quebecois option at 17.8%. Not enough value in the Conservative one at this point.
