Conservatives peaking that it, we have the latest poll from Ipsos-Reid (h/t Joan Tintor commenting at the Shotgun group blog).
Conservatives: 33%
Liberals: 32%
New Democrats: 18%
Hmmm, where have heard 33-32 before? (actually, I had it reversed)
Even more important, here are the Ontario numbers.
Conservatives: 38%
Liberals: 36%
New Democrats: 19%
That is a lot of seat shifting.
This could be important as well.
...When asked how likely they are to vote in the upcoming federal election, Conservative supporters (68%) are more likely than Liberal supporters (60%) to say they are “absolutely certain”.
This group is particularly relevant because they generally reflect the opinions of those Canadians who will actually turn-out to vote on January 23rd.
68% isn't quite walking over broken glass though.
Update: There are more details in this article in the National Post.
...Mr. Harper's party enjoyed a similar slight lead in the polls in the run-up to the 2004 federal election, but many voters -- particularly in Ontario -- jumped back to the Liberals in the closing days of that campaign. The NDP lost a lot of votes as many of its traditional supporters back Mr. Martin rather than take their chances with a Tory government.
This time, the Conservative campaign has both "traction and momentum," according to the Ipsos Reid analysis.
The survey found 42% of Canadians, up five points from last week, including 44% of Ontarians, would be "comfortable voting for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives ... because we'll probably have another minority which will keep them in check."
Mr. Harper has managed to avoid looking "unreasonable and reactionary" in this campaign, Mr. Bricker said, suggesting that will make it difficult for the Liberals to scare Canadians into voting Liberal, as they did in 2004.
Meanwhile, just 32% of respondents, down seven points, would "be comfortable voting for Paul Martin and the Liberals ... because they will govern very differently next time due to the lessons they learned from the Gomery inquiry."
