The lead is holding according to SES Research.
Conservatives: 38%
Liberals: 29%
New Democrats: 16%
Bloc Quebecois: 12%
Greens: 5%
And as I expected the Conservatives closed the gap in Atlantic Canada to a tie at 39%. Both the Conservatives and Liberals are dowm marginally in Ontario to the NDP and Greens.
But the Daily Performance Index for Stephen Harper dropped 18-points and now trails Paul Martin by 6-points. Could that be the ads? Or Derek Zeisman. We will have to keep an eye on this.
There is some conflicting evidence though since Stephen Harper has increased Best PM lead over Paul Martin to 3-points and the undecided's have dropped to 14%.
Update: This is from the regular Nik Nanos email.
“Yesterday CPAC and SES also released a review of party support by age group. CPAC-SES tracking showed that Conservative support had increased among all age groups since the beginning of the campaign. Interestingly, among 18 to 29 year olds, CPAC-SES tracking as of January 10 had the Conservatives at 33% compared to 30% for the Liberals. In contrast, at the beginning of the campaign, 18% of decided 18 to 29 year old voters supported the Conservatives representing a 15-point shift in their support among younger voters.”
