Let me repeat what I said on the Bloggers Hotstove last night. The Liberal coalition is broken with the Ontario-Quebec bridge having deteriorated through a combination of overly centralized federalism (from a Quebec perspective) and from a united right in Ontario. The Liberal Party is the party of the urban centre and Atlantic Canada. This is not big enough to win a majority. The next leader needs to expand this coalition by bringing large parts of Quebec or "the West".
The Toronto candidates are finished before they begin. They do nothing to expand the tent. I think it will be easier for the Liberals to make inroads in Quebec than in "the West" but they are behind one, if not two, parties in large parts of those regions as well. Based on that I think the next leader is a francophone. Is it Stephane Dion? His english can be weak and he is charismatically challenged but he is the front runner. If I was Martin Cauchon I would be carving out a strong provincialist platform about now.
Comments (7)
Don’t count on Atlantic Canada. CPC was 35% in NB and 42% in Nfld. Seat totals could easily flip if Maritimers get a whiff of the gravy train.
Posted by Occam's Carbuncle | March 20, 2006 9:36 AM
Posted on March 20, 2006 09:36
I do not believe I can vote for a Liberal ever again. Having said that, I also don’t believe I will ever vote for another leader who’s base is not in the WESTERN portion of this country (that is Manitoba west, Alberta west if it’s snowing).
Sorry Francophones, but it just isn’t on anymore.
Posted by Mike in White Rock | March 20, 2006 12:13 PM
Posted on March 20, 2006 12:13
I wish that there was a strong atlantic or western Liberal candidate but there isn’t. I think a BC Liberal could have taken it and done well.
Dion is a really good candidate the more and more I look at him. If he learned to speak english better he would do well.
I think Canadians want to see an outsider who can work inward to Quebec and Ontario rather than an insider who can work outward to Atlantic and West…
Posted by Riley Hennessey | March 20, 2006 12:35 PM
Posted on March 20, 2006 12:35
“The Toronto candidates are finished before they begin”
Howzzat? You may be choosing to ignore the process the Liberal Party uses to choose its leader. A process that rewards money and influence in urban centers over other qualifications. Look at who’s lining up “advisors” who have influence in those circles.
Posted by Paul O | March 20, 2006 1:47 PM
Posted on March 20, 2006 13:47
Cauchon isn’t going to run - I was involved with his campaign, but the lines of communication have gone dead.
I think a guy like Gerard Kennedy who has roots in Western Canada, but who is also fluently billingual offers some pottential for party growth.
Posted by Jeff | March 20, 2006 1:56 PM
Posted on March 20, 2006 13:56
Latest is that Cauchon is not in the running; however, word is that any of the early favourite dropouts might come back in to knock off the more off-beat pretenders.
My guess is that it will be between Rae and Quebec’s egghead in the race, Dion. The latter is odds-on, in my books, because as is demonstrated by the leadership site selection, it would be the second step in winning back Quebec. Dion is the cerebral Quebec candidate and is passionate. Outside of his command of English, the only other negative I see is his performance in the House; he sounds like he swallows his words as soon as he speaks them. No voice projection.
Posted by MadMacs of Bytown | March 22, 2006 1:49 PM
Posted on March 22, 2006 13:49
I’m not a betting person. But I’d put my money on Ignatieff entering the race, and winning on the second ballot.
Posted by Mike Brock | March 22, 2006 7:03 PM
Posted on March 22, 2006 19:03