Because it does not matter, according to Chantal Hebert, when it comes to Quebec. Several podcasts ago I mentioned that future majorities would be determined by two competing races. The Liberals in folding the NDP into their party and Conservatives folding the BQ into theirs. Whoever builds that coalition first wins. Jason Cherniak was pinch hitting on that panel and he mentioned (quoting from memory here) that the defeat of the BQ bodes well as a left-right split in Quebec works for the Liberals not the Conservatives. Here is Ms. Hebert's take:
...When francophone Quebecers look back on the past 25 Liberal years, most of them see a party that failed their constitutional aspirations at the time of patriation, blocked them at the time of Meech and then tried to brainwash them with their own money after the last referendum. That picture suggests that the Liberals will find little or no salvation in Quebec in the repositioning along the left-right ideological axis that is consuming some of their candidates these days. Harper won 10 Quebec seats in the last election precisely because the vectors of federal politics in the province do not run along that axis. Given a choice between a so-called progressive federal government that intervenes in the social policies of the provinces and one that is more conservative and does not, francophone Quebecers, to this day, will pick the latter.
And the Liberals seem to be fighting their leadership campaign on the theme of who will be most effective in re-establishing the Ottawa knows best state. Further shutting them out in Quebec and "the West". Explain to me again how the Liberals are going to get out of this mess?
Comments (3)
Chantel forgets the rest of that sentence though “Given a choice between a so-called progressive federal government that intervenes in the social policies of the provinces and one that is more conservative and does not, francophone Quebecers, to this day, will pick the latter, as long as the money keeps flowing from Ottawa (emphasis mine).” Let’s see if Harper can pull off that trick without pissing off the other provinces (especially an increasingly restive Ontario). If he can, he deserves to win big. If not… bye bye, Charlie Brown.
Posted by Greg | April 14, 2006 3:00 PM
Posted on April 14, 2006 15:00
They won’t. The Liberal goose is cooked.
Posted by The Prophet | April 14, 2006 5:31 PM
Posted on April 14, 2006 17:31
Forgive me if I go with Chantal instead of Jason.
Greg makes a good point that it is a tricky road to drive down. Equalization was a convoluted set of calculations to begin with before Paul Martin started with his “one off” deals with the Maritimes.
It’s long past time for this ‘fundemental’ aspect of the Canadian federation to be given a thorough critical examination.
For example, Quebec students enjoy the lowest tuition in the country, while remaining a ‘have not’ province. Their daycare system is the supposed envy of the country, but at an estimated cost of $1.2 billion dollars, it is yet another factor ensuring that Quebec remains a ‘have not’ province.
I have no problem with the federal government allocating another $10 billion dollars to the provinces over the next several years, but in doing so, they should be establishing a benchmark funding cost for the core services such as health care and education. Anything a province decides to do above and beyond those benchmarks is their own responsibility.
The current structure encourages have not provinces to remain have not provinces, ensuring a constant flow of money from Ottawa and an instant boogey man when necessary.
Posted by BBS | April 15, 2006 6:10 AM
Posted on April 15, 2006 06:10