The newest poll numbers pass the gut check test a little better than the recent Environics numbers. Both have the Conservatives stretching out their lead but the SC one has are more modest growth.
Conservatives: 39%
Liberals: 29%
New Democrats: 14%
Bloc Quebecois: 11%
I think the NDP number is dubious though. I doubt that the populace has seen anything from them to warrant a 5% drop in support.
Comments (6)
Remember this is an Allan Gregg poll. Didn’t he call for a CPC majority on January 23?
Posted by Greg | April 15, 2006 10:56 AM
Posted on April 15, 2006 10:56
i think it might have been the ndp pushing the debate about afghanistan that caused the drop . hard to say tho
Posted by john demerais | April 15, 2006 1:05 PM
Posted on April 15, 2006 13:05
Stretching out their lead? As in from 11 points to 10?
Posted by Dan McKenzie | April 15, 2006 1:51 PM
Posted on April 15, 2006 13:51
At election time it was 7 points.
Posted by Greg Staples | April 15, 2006 10:18 PM
Posted on April 15, 2006 22:18
The NDP and the Big Dipper have done more than enough to warrant a drop, the question is , why not a bigger drop?
Posted by Platty | April 15, 2006 11:46 PM
Posted on April 15, 2006 23:46
My theory on the NDP numbers is that it went a little artificially high because Liberals were fed up with Martin and crew, and felt that it was time for a sit out period. Probably good for at least one or two points.
Now that the leadership is on, those folks are willing to float back to the Liberals, watching to see if their guy (or gal) wins.
Further, there could have been some blowback to the NDP bringing down the government, thus bringing in a Tory goverment. Maybe another half point or so.
Finally, you have to factor in a relatively quiet winter for the Dippers. That would bleed some support.
Posted by The Hack | April 16, 2006 12:45 AM
Posted on April 16, 2006 00:45