when I can mindlessly report on a poll. This one is from Decima.
Conservatives: 38%
Liberals: 29%
New Democrats: 21%
Bloc Quebecois: 8%
Ha! The BQ is sinking....and I don't wanna swim.
What the article does not tell you is the trends based on other Decima polls. Check this out.
I don't really see anything either - well, let me see one more Decima poll before I conclude that Jack Layton is Mr. Mojo Risen.
Comments (22)
glad the conservatives are Ahead but why is it a good day when they have went down on this poll. 41 or 42 percent to 38 percent that isn’t good at all and the lying librals went up so how is it a good day.
Posted by Roy Elsworth | June 1, 2006 4:09 PM
Posted on June 1, 2006 16:09
Liberals didn’t go up.
What the article also doesn’t tell you is that not every Decima poll they do is published so the trends you or I put together aren’t really complete anyway.
I’d think the Afghanistan thing had something to do with the NDP going up.
Posted by DanMckenzie | June 1, 2006 4:18 PM
Posted on June 1, 2006 16:18
they went from 26 to 29 they stalled at 29 but they did go up they should be down in the teens along with the NDP with conservatives in the 40s I know they didn’t go up for a bit but the trend to the conservatives is down to should be the other way.
Posted by Roy Elsworth | June 1, 2006 4:46 PM
Posted on June 1, 2006 16:46
I would be doing my happy dance — if I believed any of it.
Posted by Greg | June 1, 2006 4:47 PM
Posted on June 1, 2006 16:47
let me see one more Decima poll before I conclude that Jack Layton is Mr. Mojo Risen.
Why? NDP support has steadily risen over the past 3 years since Jack took over as leader of the party. If 3 years worth of polls and electoral results aren’t good enough evidence then I fail to see how one more poll will persuade you the NDP’s recent rise in popularity is real.
Posted by Robert McClelland | June 1, 2006 4:49 PM
Posted on June 1, 2006 16:49
There is no Liberal leader right now and we’re holding firm and the Conservatives are dipping and the BQ dropping. The NDP vote is only in a few cities so it’s never as high in votes as it seems in polls.
Not bad.
Would be even better if I believed in polling.
Ted Cerberus
Posted by Ted | June 1, 2006 4:59 PM
Posted on June 1, 2006 16:59
I do think they are right about the nervousness over giving Harper a majority.
Posted by Greg | June 1, 2006 5:00 PM
Posted on June 1, 2006 17:00
What Ted doesn’t mention is that two of those “few cities” are Toronto and Vancouver. There are a few seats in those insignificant places. If the Liberals don’t want them, we will be glad to take them off their hands. :p
Posted by Greg | June 1, 2006 5:03 PM
Posted on June 1, 2006 17:03
Robert, I meant the recent up-tick. I agree with you that Jack Layton has done a good job of growing NDP support and I am as curious as anyone as to how high he can take it.
Posted by Greg Staples | June 1, 2006 6:35 PM
Posted on June 1, 2006 18:35
Just remember that there is a margin of error. Taking that into account there really is negligable movement. I would say statistically insignificant unless you vote based on polls. But hey G.S. I wouldn’t want to rain on your parade, I hope you enjoy many more polls ;)
Posted by Fergy | June 1, 2006 6:38 PM
Posted on June 1, 2006 18:38
I don’t think this poll is good news for the Tories.
It shows that the parties are essentially where they were on election night.
The NDP usually does well between elections.
No majority for anyone if an election is held now. The Quebec support for the Tories is very soft. Kennedy or Ignatieff will have no trouble getting back many of the core Lib seats in Quebec now under Bloc control.
Posted by Anonymous | June 1, 2006 8:06 PM
Posted on June 1, 2006 20:06
anonymous I don’t think ignatiff will get may quebec support remeber he is against ssm and supports the war in Iraq. he also has a say on abortions to so I highly doubt he will get any support in quebec lol besides he speaks with so high of vocab most people can’t understand him anyways the usually get confused.
Posted by roy Elsworth | June 1, 2006 8:37 PM
Posted on June 1, 2006 20:37
Roy:
You have as much of a clue about Michael Ignatieff as you do about spelling.
Ignatieff is very strongly in favour of equal marriage to the point of promising to enforce party discipline on the issue. And there is absolutely no doubt about him being pro-choice. Also, Quebecers are more intelligent then you would like to believe them.
Ted Cerberus
Posted by Ted | June 1, 2006 9:51 PM
Posted on June 1, 2006 21:51
“Also, Quebecers are more intelligent then you would like to believe them.”
Wow, coming from a guy who’s a member of party that tried to buy their loyalty. Who says Irony is dead?
Personally Ignatieff is probably more beneficial to Harper than any of the other lot. With his pro-war stance, and his challenging of Liberal “sacred cows” it would give Harper more breathing room to talk about widescale reform, and should Ignatieff call him on it, all we need to do is refer his own words against him.
Posted by Anonymous | June 1, 2006 10:42 PM
Posted on June 1, 2006 22:42
Are you saying that Iggy will not allow a free vote on issues of concience or religious conviction or the wishes of their constituents?
Here comes the Liberal the democratic defecit again.
Posted by Maria | June 2, 2006 1:11 AM
Posted on June 2, 2006 01:11
I think Jack Layton and the NDP are about to go down, for two reasons. First, The wildcat TTC strike and the NDP favourtism of unions, and second, also union related, Sid Ryan and their support of the palestinians and well suicide bombers and opposition to The people of Israel and ‘The apartheid wall.’ This will become a public issue which is bad for Layton and gang.
Posted by Allan | June 2, 2006 1:27 AM
Posted on June 2, 2006 01:27
What are the Quebec numbers? I wish the pollsters would stop posting the “national” numbers of the BQ and simply do an extra paragraph describing the numbers in Quebec. Then we’d have a better chance of predicting how they’d actually do.
And where were the Greens? Back at 5?
Posted by James Bow | June 2, 2006 8:37 AM
Posted on June 2, 2006 08:37
I will say that the poll conforms to my own suspicions: that why Canadians want a Conservative government, they don’t want a Conservative majority government. They’ve had their governments on short leashes for two years, now, and they kinda like it.
Posted by James Bow | June 2, 2006 8:40 AM
Posted on June 2, 2006 08:40
“why Canadians” should be “while Canadians”
Posted by James Bow | June 2, 2006 8:40 AM
Posted on June 2, 2006 08:40
I wouldn’t be too quick to make that assumption, James. One could just as easily say Canadians are making a slow transition to Conservative majority. Historically, Canadians are more comfortable with majority governments. No stock makes a sustained advance to new highs without a bit of profit-taking along the way.
I’m not saying you’re wrong. But I watched a strategist on ROB tv this morning advocating getting short of the Canadian dollar. Good luck to him but I would never short anything in a bull market. Trend reversals generally take a lot longer than most imagine. I believe this is the realization several of the high-profile Liberal leadership drop-outs recognized.
Posted by Dr. Strangelove | June 2, 2006 10:45 AM
Posted on June 2, 2006 10:45
Any poll that doesn’t include the Green Party is +/- 10% inaccurate, especially if said poll gives out vote percentages.
Posted by Pete | June 2, 2006 10:50 AM
Posted on June 2, 2006 10:50
Well, this poll also asked what the desired outcome of the next election was. Yes, I know that polls are worth only about the paper they’re printed on, but it was still interesting. Only 30% wanted a Conservative majority. There was stronger support for a Conservative minority.
After twelve years of Liberal majority rule pretty much soured by Paul Martin, and nine years of Conservative majority rule soured by Brian Mulroney, it wouldn’t surprise me to find Canadians favouring either government by tough negotiation, or even gridlock.
Posted by James Bow | June 2, 2006 11:08 AM
Posted on June 2, 2006 11:08