(heck, if gives something else to talk about).
The latest poll from Strategic Counsel is up:
Conservatives: 37% (+1 from election)
Liberals: 26% (-4)
New Democrats: 18% (even)
Bloc Quebecois: 11% (even)
Greens: 9% (+5 - vote parking?)
Tim Woolstencroft of The Strategic Counsel thinks these are early election numbers - I wonder though. I know that election history has Liberal gov't support going down during a campaign. Is this the same for Conservatives? If so there does not look like there is a majority in the offing. I have not run the numbers but even an eleven-point gap would probably not lead to a majority since there is no vote-splitting opportunity that got Jean Chretien majorities with such a low level of support.
As always I will be watching for future polls.
Comments (8)
The Globe & Mail suggesting that Harper should go to the polls early …. Hmmm, why does this not sound right?
Posted by cb | July 20, 2006 10:24 AM
Posted on July 20, 2006 10:24
There will be no election - an election call this early would only be called if the government agenda is blocked - the opposition won’t let that happen. It seems to me a reasonable assumption that a sizable chunck of the governemnts support is just parked there as it was during the liberal period 93-2006
Posted by chris | July 20, 2006 10:38 AM
Posted on July 20, 2006 10:38
I would like to point out that this particular firm’s poll results are questionable. They always poll the CPC lower than any other polling company. They were wrong about the CPC having 42% support in the last election as well. The Environics poll had us at 39%. We are close to majority territory. The problem seems to be Bloc and Green Party support at the moment. That may change in the coming months with the Conservatives green plan and fiscal imbalance initiatives.
Posted by KPK | July 20, 2006 11:01 AM
Posted on July 20, 2006 11:01
To avoid a broken-heart-over-discontinuity-between-polls-and-election-night-results syndrome I have decided that I will only trust SES polls (who are always within 1% of the actual results). SES ALWAYS puts us below the numbers SC gives us…which makes me shudder to think what kind of polling numbers SES would be giving us right now.
Posted by Andrew Mason | July 20, 2006 2:03 PM
Posted on July 20, 2006 14:03
What Andrew Mason says. If SC shows you at 37, the real number is probably 34.
Posted by Greg | July 20, 2006 2:43 PM
Posted on July 20, 2006 14:43
The only reason we should/will head to election is if the government is taken down. Other than that I don’t see the Tories dropping the writ until they attack wait times as promised and a few others that need to be checked off the list. Once they have gone through every section of their election platform I would think the writ would come down pretty quick. Just an opinion, but one that would give them the best chance at winning the trust of Canadians.
Make a promise….do it….make a promise…do it…etc.
Posted by TrustOnlyMulder | July 20, 2006 6:00 PM
Posted on July 20, 2006 18:00
Very interesting. If you figure that Harper cannot do much better than he is doing now, then I would not be overly happy as a Tory.
Posted by Jason Cherniak | July 20, 2006 9:30 PM
Posted on July 20, 2006 21:30
“If you figure that Harper cannot do much better than he is doing now, then I would not be overly happy as a Tory.”
I suspect the Tories would not be overly happy to have you, either.
Posted by Occam's Carbuncle | July 21, 2006 1:26 PM
Posted on July 21, 2006 13:26