Apolitical Staples

“Now I am no expert on Atlantic Canada but somehow I think there would be more to the drop in support than foreign policy.”

How about the typically tiny number of interviewees? Sample size matters. I don’t see what else it could be, since Harper hasn’t threatened to take away the “sit for money” program.

Ditto on the Atlantic Canada numbers… because the sample size is pretty small for the region, even a few individuals swinging would have a significant change on it’s numbers.

I just think people in B.C and atlantic Canada are so stupid when they vote for the liebranos. they support terrorists like the tumitil tigers and Hamas and Habola and as far as I’m concerned the un should have told the terrorists to leave that area before they get bombed ahead and not use them as a human shield if they didn’t listen then the un should have moved. and the conservatives and pm harper are doing a great job don’t worry to much about them it’s summer.

The headline numbers and sample sizes aside, both polls show a downward trend which cannot be seen as a positive sign. This is without any meaningful opposition the past 6 months.

Ipsos Reid had the Conservatives up 15 points on the eve of the Election winning a strong majority. Decima did not do much better either.

If these poll trends hold up after Labor Day, I would be worried. Now, not so much.

CB is right. All you Tories are at the cottage and can’t be reached by phone. If it holds up after LD you are in trouble. Otherwise, enjoy the beach.

The only poll that matters is the election…

The only poll that matters is the election…

Careful TT, that’s what the Liberals were saying before the last election.

Have you forgotten the “30 days after Gomery” meme? That is what they were saying ‘cause they the headlights coming. But that proves your point from the other direction ;)

The day after an election that is held anytime soon will see a government and opposition constituted in roughly the same numbers with the same parties playing the same roles, so who cares?

I have a problem with the comment that Conservative numbers are down in BC due to the Middle East conflict. There was a poll last week on support for Harper’s stance on the situation in Lebanon and here in BC he got about 83%, compared to 67% in Alberta, so either something else is going on or there is a sampling error.

People tend to think of BC as pretty homogeneous, but in fact there is a huge difference between Vancouver and the Lower Mainland, and the Interior, and here on the Island we are all over the place. I think they tend to use a sample of about 200 for this province, so typically the numbers come out a bit skewed.

I’ve come to the conclusion that most people don’t know anything about what’s going on in politics or who’s running the show. Ya, Ya, they know Harper in charge, they don’t know anything about the Liberals because they don’t have a leader….we’re into the summer months now so most people really couldn’t give a flying fig about politics. The other challenge in BC is that most people here don’t know the difference between the Fedral Liberals (or Librano’s as some refer to them) and Provincial ones (who are running things for the most part more like Alberta’s Tory’s.) And are doing a pretty decent job concidering they have to deal with so many Unions who are all pretty much in bed with Carol James and her N.o D.amn P.lan party.

I’m generalizing but most people here in the lower mainland have english as a second language (if not third) or listen to their religious leaders on who to vote for… which explains how Uzo got in as a fedral Libral from being a former back door, non-elected NDP Premier…

I have a different idea for why the Conservatives are dropping in the polls. Their stance on climate change. It has been a sweltering summer. Everyone with half a brain now knows that global warming is occuring (including most of the leading skeptics: Patrick Michaels, Lomborg, Spencer, Christy). I wouldn’t be too worried though, the Conservatives will soon anounce a made in the US plan on (not) tackling climate change. That plan will satisfy voters that something is being done just like the Liberal plan did (even though neither did or will do anything).

The key to the Tories election strategy should be to have the election on the coldest day of the winter when people will be voting for the party that will do the most to help cook the planet.

I’ve said it before; forgive me for saying it again: without clear internals, the numbers are all but meaningless.

What is the sampling of urban versus rural? Likely voters? Men / women? etc. In any given poll, some groups will be oversampled (especially in smaller polls such as this one). By understanding which groups were oversampled, and understanding the predispositions of those groups, we can better understand which polls are likely to be outliers and which are trendsetters.

There’s a new CTV poll by the Strategic Counsel that shows similar results:

• Conservatives - 38%
• Liberals - 29%
• NDP - 15%
• Bloc Quebecois - 11%
• Greens - 8%

“It has been a sweltering summer. Everyone with half a brain now knows that global warming is occuring”

Everyone with half a brain knows better than to sensationalize a serious environmental issue by attributing every metereological extremity to it.

From the IPCC:

“Global mean surface air temperature has increased by between about 0.3 and 0.6°C since the late 19th century”

“For the mid­range IPCC emission scenario, IS92a, assuming the “best estimate” value of climate sensitivity and including the effects of future increases in aerosol, models project an increase in global mean surface air temperature relative to 1990 of about 2°C by 2100.”