Apolitical Staples

Wow, if Decima is left, we have to invite them to more parties. That way they would give the NDP a bigger slice of the pie. ;)

BTW, though I am sad to say it, I think Steve’s foreign policy adventures has pushed a lot of nervous NDP types right back into the arms of the Liberals. Jack is going to have a hell of a time undoing the damage. I think it may be so bad that he won’t be able to repair it as long as Steve is PM. Did I mention Steve is an idiot?

The best thing for the Conservatives would be for the Liberals to believe these editorial/push polls.

Well I didn’t think the polls would move this much for this issue but I do think there’s a large Dubya factor. Not to mention some who’ve got to be upset over the disapearing priority game and israel-lebanon fundraising.

As for CP and Decima being left wing. I wouldn’t be so sure. I was making the same complaints for their editorializing of poll results in favour of the Conservatives a short while ago.

And just an example. A close friend of mine, pretty much a centrist, but a Bush hater, has voted Conservative in the last two elections in Winnipeg South Centre. But he’s now cheering for an Ignatieff win in the leadership race, and got excited over the possibility of Kennedy running in his riding.

A big unknown might be that large group of voters who voted to punish the Liberals.

Oh, and the Conservative still haven’t delved back into the same-sex marriage issue. Hopefully they do it right as the Republicans are being loudly criticized for making it an issue.

Conservative bloggers are too focused on Israel/Afghanistan, too many threads defending Foreign Affairs. Getting tough on repeat sex-offeneders etc., that’s where Conservatives appeal would be right now. We have to change the channel or at least stay current with domestic issues.

Dan,

Well a good friend of mine (also from Winnipeg) just told me that he’d rather scrape a cheese grater over his scalp until it was a pasty mess, rather than vote Liberal.

So much for anecdotal evidence I guess.

Mid-summer polls are just that, mid-summer. Probably why SES hasn’t released one. A July poll focused on foreign policy might be giving some Liberal supporters an extra jolly or two today, but it’s certainly not anything I’d take to Vegas

Well if he hates the Liberals that much he’s probably not in the category of voter I’m talking about.

BBS is right though.

“Apparently Ontario and Quebec want a “more nuanced” approach to Hezbollah”

Terrorism is not a Canadian Value.

“Did I mention Steve is an idiot?”

No, no, Greg. Sociopaths are usually very bright.

Foreign policy adventures - that means taking a principled stand instead of adhering to the adolescent fantasy of “honest broker”.

Why is this not posted on the Decima site yet.

I would like to see what questions they asked.

Uh… there was an Ipsos poll on July 27 that suggested there’s a 12 point gap. To say the gap narrowed by double digits in a week is absolutely absurd. Even the sponsorship scandal didn’t kill Liberal support that fast. This is also way outside the margin of error and is almost statistically impossible. Obviously one poll is lying. I wonder which one it is……….

Let’s see: Ipsos Reid (August 1st) - http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/12717 39% for the Conservatives (+3% from January 23rd)

Strategic Counsel (July 24th) - http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/12649 37% for the Conservatives (+1% from January 23rd)

And of course Decima (‘Librima’) (August 2nd)- http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=b9c135c2-35ed-4360-a704-1bf10b8180f5&k=89927 32% for the Conservatives (-4% for the Conservatives)

I’m more inclined to believe that Ipsos Reid and Strategic Counsel are on the mark but Decima to state a maximum 7% drop in support in just one day compared to the other polls is needless to say ridiculous.

Can the bias be any more obvious?

I don’t think you will find a better example of a editorial disguised as a poll than that.

Except for any poll by Alan Gregg.

Ipsos tends to give the Conservatives higher percentages Jason. If they did another poll at the same time as the recent Decima poll, it would probably show another small dip for the Conservatives.

This surprises me not at all really.

I would like to say something ‘nice’ about this country, but I really can’t.

It is virtually in toto equivalent to what you see in the current incarnation of the Liberal Party. Intellectually bankrupt and smug beyond all reason.

Harper is the exception to the rules here and let’s be honest, we don’t like ‘exceptions’. Not bland enough for our tastes. They don’t make us feel ‘good’ about our non-contributions to the state of the world. We are simply a pale reflection of Europe, with the difference that Europe at least HAD better days. Canada’s better days were always supposed to be in the future.

As if.

What a country.

“Can the bias be any more obvious?”

Nooooooooooo

A lot of this could be delayed reaction. Often, it takes a while for people to soak in all the information. Remember how long it took for the Liberal numbers to turn south even after weeks and weeks of Gomery?

We’ll have to see if there is confirmation of the trend from other pollsters.

If the trend continues after Labour Day, the Tories are going to have a few problems because the Quebec and Ontario provincial election machines (a.k.a. Fed bashing) will also be getting geared up. Plus, softwood lumber, fiscal (im)balance, environment, Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, and who knows what else.

BTW, though I am sad to say it, I think Steve’s foreign policy adventures has pushed a lot of nervous NDP types right back into the arms of the Liberals. Jack is going to have a hell of a time undoing the damage. I think it may be so bad that he won’t be able to repair it as long as Steve is PM. Did I mention Steve is an idiot?

I wouldn’t read too much into any apparent movements in NDP support - they’re well within the margin of error from the election’s results.

That being said, for as long as journalists solicit the interpretations of pollsters (who, quite frankly, can’t reliably infer much from one poll), we’ll get things like Anderson’s comments. But Decima, left? That’s the first I’ve heard of it - it was after all founded by then-Tory pollster Allan Gregg.

I’ve been saying it since the recent election. Polling interpretation by the CP and the pollsters themselves is always bizarre, and totally useless. Just gives us the results, that’s all we want.

As for bias. Both the left and right always cry over poll results.

Strategic Counsel gives the Conservatives 38% and Ipsos-Reid 39%. Both were taken around the same time period as the Decima poll. It would seem to me that the Decima one is the outlier.

No, no, Greg. Sociopaths are usually very bright.

You are right of course. I stand corrected.

Well, since the Liberals had 12 different opinions on the Middle East - they would have a lot of different voters agreeing with a lot of different views - some of which are polar opposites.

The Liberal problem is when they have only one leader and have to actually take one position.

Personnally I find this poll rather disturbing considering that the Liberals are still leaderless. I thought Canadians had finally come to their senses. That is, I should say, I thought Ontarians had come to their senses.

Harper’s chickens …

The latest polls showing falling Tory support reflect more than just Harper’s Afghanistan and Middle East policies. They show that voters have watched Harper in action, matched his actions to his statements, and found him wanting. The Tory slide was inevitable, once voters actually tuned in to what they were doing, as opposed to what they were saying they were going to do. The slide is caused by:

• Harper’s fumbles on the ethical questions (the Accountability Act versus his appointments of Emerson etc; recent questionable contract awards; the loopholes cut in the Act for lobbyists). • Harper’s shameless Afghanistan vote (voters now clearly see that it was a rush to obtain a vote, and not a meaningful debate of the country’s role). • Harper’s rush to model himself on Bush (the guards, the presidential airs, the refusal to deal with the press unless they were handpicked lapdogs, the use of Bushisms such as “cut and run”, the dressing up as a warrior). • Harper’s craven capitulation to the Americans over the softwood debacle. • Harper’s apparent desire to do anything to win votes in Quebec, even if it meant dismembering the Canada that now works so well).

The chickens are coming home to roost, and soiling Harper’s image … About time, too!

One poll…

Statistics state that if you roll a die over and over and over and over again, you’ll eventually get all the numbers at least once.

Similar with polls, if you take enough of them, you’ll get the results you want…