Apolitical Staples

Two words:

summer polling.

Just like weekend polling, summer polling skews in Libs favour.

Watch for a bounce up this fall based on that aspect alone.

Also, the Libs are currently benefitting from the “fill in factor”: with no leader picked, many Libs are assuming their person getting in. After a leader is picked, it may not translate into a significant migration to the CPC or NDP (although that is almost a certainty to some extent given the divergant views of the leadership) it will definitly affect the likelihood of actually going out to vote.

Trust Chester,

while he doesn’t “know” per se, he has a very good educated guess.

“Also, the Libs are currently benefitting from the “fill in factor”: with no leader picked, many Libs are assuming their person getting in.”

Nik Nannos calls this the “Mona Lisa fastor”. People picking the Liberals see what they want to see. i.e. their own choice of leader in charge.

I just can’t wait to see the MSM reaction when Lib polling numbers drop, sometime in the middle of January I’d say. By then, it will be obvious that there has been little healing of wounds, uniting of the party factions, coherent consistent message, more old scandals uncovered. And of course, Harper will then have a fixed target to focus his sharp attacks and blindsiding announcements. All the while giving good governance.

The Lib march towards the abyss will speed up perceptibly by then. Will the MSM try to help them (so as to keep the contest even), switch their allegiance to smilin Jack, or attack the Libs even more, as they smell blood.

Tell that Nanos guy, its the “fill in factor”,

and when he asks who coined it,

you just tell him Chester sent you.

Remember, trust Chester.

(Chester’s got his mojo back!)

Chester, I love your enthusiasm, I really do, and I am glad that you found your mojo - where was it?? ;-)

I am more cautious. Wasn’t it you who had the CPC pegged for a majority right up until election day? Have you figured out why that didn’t work out? Does the same problem still exist?

The only thing I am feeling confident about right now is that I believe another CPC minority, albiet stronger, would result in an election now.

Voters and volunteers are weary, turn out would be crap, gains would be minimal. I hope that there isn’t one for at least another year no matter what the polls say.

Poll’s are snapshots in time and they are pretty accurate for that moment.

There will be a lot of change in the next three months.

No matter who the Liberals pick for their leader they will alienate some portion of their party.

Iggy wins and they move more right than the Conservative party and a large chunk bolts to the NDP.

Rae wins and he moves the party to the Left and they pick up a big block of NDP votes and many blue Liberals move to the Conservatives.

A Dion win maintains the status quo.

Not sure about what a Kennedy win would bring, probably no major shift either.

Decima/CP.CBC/Sep1-07 shows a somewhat narrower spread.

Both Ipsos & Decima show virtually no change from Jan/06.

PM has about 2-3 months to get a quick boost before the media beatification of Kennedy/Dion/Iggy starts in early Jan/07.