Robert Fife of CTV speculates that Michael Ignatieff has all but won the leadership.
Don Martin of the National Post seems to be leaning in that direction as well but says "there's no room for cockiness with potent Anyone-But-Iggy forces conspiring against him".
John Ivison of the National Post speculates that Bob Rae and Stephane Dion are most likely to jpin forces and that Gerard Kennedy looks to be emerging as the kingmaker - and that Igantieff is lobbying hard to get his support. However, it is up to the delegates now.
Speaking of kingmaking, Graeme Hamilton reports that Stephane Dion still thinks it is good to be the king and that he can still become one.
John Ibbitson reports this jaw dropper - "It has been said the Liberal Party is so weak in Quebec that fewer votes were cast in the entire province this weekend than in the suburban ridings surrounding Toronto, an allegation that points to the urgent need for the Liberals to rebuild their party in Quebec, not to the advisability of electing a leader utterly devoid of support there."
Jeffrey Simpson of the Globe and Mail agrees that this is Michael Ignatieff's to lose, odds are that he will win, but if he does lose it will be to Stephane Dion.
There seems to be a consensus as Chantal Hebert also states that Ignatieff has all but won this, Rae is finish because of Ontario, Kennedy is finished because of Quebec but his support is crucial for an anybody-but-Iggy movement, and that the only one who can mount this Dion but it is unlikely that he can pull this off.
Warren Kinsella agrees that it is down to Ignatieff and Dion and cautions to not count Dion out.
And Doug Finley is preparing another memo.
Comments (5)
The Montreal Gazette says “Quebec turned out to be one of the strongest provinces for Ignatieff, with 38.2 per cent of delegates. Dion was second with 28 per cent while Rae was 25.1 per cent … Denis Coderre, MP a key organizer for Ignatieff, said he is particularly pleased with Ignatieff’s strong showing in French-speaking Quebec off the island of Montreal, saying that is what the Liberal Party needs to do to win the next election.”
So pacifist Quebec supports warmonger Ignatieff. Go figure. Then again “socialist” Quebec is the province most in favour of privatized Health Care and it is showing big swings from the public school system to private school. Quebec is like France – an enigma. I’m glad Harper seems comfortable with his strategy there, I sure can’t figure it out.
Posted by nomdenet | October 2, 2006 8:38 AM
Posted on October 2, 2006 08:38
Hopefully Iggy wins. I’d like to have an American as our next prime minister, or is “convenient canadian” more accurate?
Posted by potato | October 2, 2006 9:02 AM
Posted on October 2, 2006 09:02
Both Rae and Ignatieff will lose the Tim Horton vote.
I would discount the Quebec vote as being a reflection of Quebec sentiment. The turnout in Quebec was pathetically low. Less voters in all of Quebec than surburan Toronto. 15 ridings outvoted 75.
These type of votes reflect organizational strength. That’s why Dryden got smoked and Kennedy picked up 4 times as many delegates. Kennedy had no organization in Quebec and it showed with 1% of the delegates.
Posted by PlaidShirt | October 2, 2006 9:36 AM
Posted on October 2, 2006 09:36
potato,
I am always so baffled by the Canadians who refer to Ignatieff as an American. He lived in the U.S. for a few years, but in the UK for a huge chunk of his adult life. Why is he not an “Englishman”?
Posted by Idealistic Pragmatist | October 2, 2006 10:24 AM
Posted on October 2, 2006 10:24
There are a few wildcards to consider: particularly, for whom do Brison, Dryden, Volpe, and Hall-Findlay cast their support? And how do the ex-officios break down?
One can imagine most of Brison’s delegates going to Ignatieff, and Volpe’s splitting among the anybody-but survivors.
Kennedy has a mountain to climb, and was very weak were Dryden was strong, so Dryden’s delegates are probably more likely to split mostly for Ignatieff (maybe 60%?). If Kennedy chooses to follow, he could give an early victory to Ignatieff with appropriate rewards (leaving Dion and Rae both in the wind).
On the other hand, if the delegates choose to create a divide onto the later ballots between Ignatieff and Anybody But, then both Rae and Dion have some serious dealmaking to do. And if Dion had a hard time organizing his vote in Ontario, can his team organize delegates for him at the convention?
I don’t see how Rae and Dion can align as many as four or five campaigns before Ignatieff walks over the finish line.
Posted by Paul O | October 2, 2006 4:36 PM
Posted on October 2, 2006 16:36