I have been trying to cut back on my commentary on polls mainly since they are nonsense until the Liberals get a new leader and we get closer to an election. But this one…this one is from SES Research and my goodness, it is a super-mega-ultra-lightning babe poll. More to come as I digest it. But before I go it is not exactly good news for Liberals.
Update: I recognize that the error is the breakdowns is huge but Stephane Dion has some serious problems with Greens. 6.3% more likely, 26.7% less likely to vote Liberal with Dion as leader. So much for Dion being the environmental candidate. And serious negatives with BQ supporters, though this was to be expected. It is almost the mirror image of Michael Ignatieff who managed to win some Greens over (+30.3 vs. -13.5%) with his carbon tax and comes out neutral with BQ supporters. Bob Rae can bring New Democrats and BQistes into the tent but at the cost of Liberals. And Gerard Kennedy? The only one of the four who has a net loss…within his own party.
Let me put it this way, to determine where the Liberals will be after they pick a leader take whatever the Liberal numbers are before the convention (and ignore the post convention bounce) and take of 2-3 points.
Comments (3)
That really is fascinating—thanks.
I’m not surprised about Dion and the Greens, by the way—he may be billing himself as the environment candidate, but he’s also billing himself as the defender of the Liberal record. The Green voting block consists largely of disaffected voters, and there’s no way in hell they’re voting for someone who says the Liberals should be proud of how they governed.
Posted by Idealistic Pragmatist | November 12, 2006 8:02 PM
Posted on November 12, 2006 20:02
I have to wonder how much of a factor strategic answering played.
For example: If I’m a committed Green voter, and I want the Green’s to do as well as possible, and I don’t really care about being honest, who am I going to say that I wouldn’t vote for?
Obviously, the candidate that is running as the environmental candidate: Dion.
Posted by Rob Edger | November 12, 2006 11:31 PM
Posted on November 12, 2006 23:31
For virtually all cases, any one of these potential Liberal leaders will make more Liberals “less likely to vote Liberal” than non-Liberals “more likely to vote Liberal”
Posted by MarkCh | November 13, 2006 2:04 PM
Posted on November 13, 2006 14:04