Apolitical Staples

they really get in the way of a good sales pitch. Check out Bob Rae quoted in the Globe and Mail this morning.

…With only two weeks of campaigning left before delegates begin arriving in Montreal for the federal Liberals’ leadership convention, Mr. Rae is seizing on a new poll that shows he could swing New Democratic Party voters into the Liberal camp. Canadians are “looking for a new leader who in fact could move the Liberal Party forward and clearly establish the Liberal Party as the alternative to Mr. Harper, which is the key to what we need to do to form a government,” Mr. Rae said yesterday in an interview with CBC Newsworld.

I understand that the leadership hopefuls have to put the best spin on things but look at the referenced SES Research poll and you can see the news is not good for Rae. Take the NDP voters polled for instance, 29.6% of them are more likely to vote Liberal with Rae as leader and 22.2% are less likely. If we are to take these people at their word then a net 7.4% of the 17.5% of Canadians who voted New Democrat in the last election are more likely to vote for Rae. That is an extra 1.3% in the national polls. And what do you do with the 26.5% of Liberals who say they are less likely to vote Liberal under Rae’s leadership? You can’t look at a net number because if someone already votes Liberal and this time they really will vote Liberal you have not gained anything. But if 4.3% of Liberals or 16% of the Liberal voters who describe themselves less likely to vote Liberal if Bob Rae is leader actually switch their votes then any gain coming in the from the left door will be lost through the right door.
Leadership candidates can spin this poll any way they want but it is bad news for all of them.