I can't put my finger on it but, to quote Ken Dryden, this feels wrong to me.
...Although at first blush, Mr. Ignatieff's lead appears to be a healthy one, the poll found that Mr. Dion is well ahead of Mr. Ignatieff in second-choice support, which will be critical once also-rans begin dropping off the ballot.
The poll found that 23 per cent of delegates would pick Mr. Dion, while 13 per cent would choose Mr. Kennedy. Mr. Rae is the second choice of 10 per cent of delegates with Mr. Ignatieff at 6 per cent.
If Allan Gregg is to be believed this is because Stephane Dion is the consensus second choice for Kennedy supporters.
...The key to a Dion victory would be whether he can pick up the support of the four lowest-ranked candidates and finish ahead of Mr. Kennedy. Should that happen, Mr. Kennedy would eventually be forced out of the contest and his supporters disbursed among the other three. Given that Mr. Kennedy's delegates prefer Mr. Dion by a two-to-one margin over Mr. Rae, their votes may vault the former environment minister over Mr. Rae, and Mr. Rae would then have to drop out. That would leave Mr. Dion in a final-ballot showdown with Mr. Ignatieff. In such a battle, Mr. Rae's supporters prefer Mr. Dion over Mr. Ignatieff by more than three to one, the poll found.
Indeed. The convention could very well come down to who has to drop off first, Kennedy or Dion. That and where to the undecideds break.
