John Ivison takes a look at the Green threat to the NDP today.
...If the rise of the Greens in London is replicated in a few other ridings in a general election, the NDP could be squeezed between a left-leaning Liberal Party and a Green Party that is heading towards the centre at full throttle. The London result, when taken in isolation, suggests the NDP decline is directly related to the Greens' rise. In the January general election, the NDP won 24% of the vote to the Greens 5%. This week, Walker won 14%, compared to May's 26% -- the best performance by the Greens in any federal election.
However, it may be that Elizabeth May is more interested in moral victories than actual victories (ok maybe that builds the case that the Greens are the new NDP - new New Democrats, now with mint) with her curious choice of where to run in the next election. Sure she lives in Cape Breton but surely she has looked at past results. Let's take the last election as an example.
Cape Breton-Canso
Liberal: 53.9%
Conservative: 24.1%
New Democrat: 20.1%
Green: 2.5%
Sydney-Victoria
Liberal: 49.9%
New Democrat: 28.5%
Conservative: 18.3%
Green: 2.9%
From under 3% to electoral victory - good luck with that.
Comments (7)
What you are missing is how this hurts the Tories too. Remember, they came in third place in London. The Greens are proving to be a nice little place to park you protest vote (if you are, say, a Progressive Conservative who bought into the Harper as centrist line from the last election) without having to resort to voting Liberal. If I was Harper, I would be concerned by this. I am sure Jack is going nuts over it.
Posted by Greg | November 29, 2006 9:45 AM
Posted on November 29, 2006 09:45
While the left dukes it out for the big city vote, will Conservatives come up the middle? Will the Greens give PMSH his majority?
Posted by wilson61 | November 29, 2006 12:00 PM
Posted on November 29, 2006 12:00
Nope.
Posted by Greg | November 29, 2006 12:26 PM
Posted on November 29, 2006 12:26
The Greens will alleviate the NDP of a lot of votes in the next election. It’s time for them to start looking at what the point of their party is, if they haven’t grown in ~50 years enough to get even a minority government. My suggestion to NDP supporters would be to consider joining the Green Party, and lending support where it can grow.
And I too hope that May has a plan to get elected in her home province, because those numbers don’t look good. Judging by the London test, it appears she’ll have to take double the Liberal votes away from her opponent or wind up in second again.
Posted by Saskboy | November 29, 2006 12:56 PM
Posted on November 29, 2006 12:56
Dippers going to the Greens instead of the Libs (down 5%) to ‘stop the Conservatives’ should be of worry to the Libs too. Looks like NDP is ready to call in their votes from the Libs and ‘loan’ them to the Greens.
Posted by wilson61 | November 29, 2006 2:20 PM
Posted on November 29, 2006 14:20
Lets be realistic here. The Greens recieved 4.5% in the last election, while the NDP came in at 18%.
Until the Greens do better electorally than the NDP, I doubt there will be any kind of merger. The Greens could very well end up in the 4% range or do marginally better in the next election.
Posted by bza | November 30, 2006 8:16 PM
Posted on November 30, 2006 20:16
BZA, let’s be accurate, as well as realistic. The Greens got 26% in the “last” election, while the NDP got about half that. Since it’s only one riding, it won’t translate to everywhere, but the NDP have shown they can’t grow in Canada, and in Quebec, while the Greens are a whole new ballgame.
Posted by Saskboy
|
November 30, 2006 10:20 PM
Posted on November 30, 2006 22:20