Or at least they are the ones who have given the Liberals their post-convention bounce. Here CTV reports on the latest Decima poll.
Liberals: 35%
Conservatives: 31%
New Democrats: 12%
Greens: 10%
A national poll that has the Greens at 10% - I will believe that when I see it in an election. I think we should all wait until after Christmas before we start putting any faith in the polls.
Comments (8)
I’m wondering about thresholds. I mean, maybe placement becomes more important in these polls than vote total. While the Conservatives were in second place, they weren’t really considered seriously, but then they finally take first place, and then they become serious contenders/threats.
It’s always been a Liberal/Conservative race, but maybe placement is more important in the also-ran positions. When the NDP threatened to overtake the Liberals, we all looked on with interest, but nothing happened. Had the NDP overtaken the Liberals, maybe more people would have paid attention, and maybe Liberal support could well have fallen out, since the NDP would then have been seen as a credible alternative.
Likewise, the movements of the Greens might not mean anything until they pass somebody. If they move past the NDP and end up getting seen as the “third” or “fourth party”, then somebody voters might be giving them a second look. Thoughts?
Posted by James Bow
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December 6, 2006 5:01 PM
Posted on December 6, 2006 17:01
My threshold for the Greens is a tad unfair. Until they win a seat I think their polling numbers are dubious. Check that - if they poll consistently above 10% for a 6 month period of time in multiple polls then I will believe it.
One poll and Decima at that - right after the Liberal convention?
Posted by Greg Staples | December 6, 2006 5:22 PM
Posted on December 6, 2006 17:22
The liberals must be loving the cons and steve now, and now this. Dion was probably the worst thing that could have happened to you..
Posted by Stephen Harper, Right Time, Wrong Guy | December 6, 2006 9:31 PM
Posted on December 6, 2006 21:31
Well, I did warn you.
Posted by Greg | December 7, 2006 6:46 AM
Posted on December 7, 2006 06:46
Sorry, hit the wrong button. I did warn you that Harper’s shift to the hard right threatened to stampede soft NDP support to the Liberals, so why are you surprised?
Posted by Greg | December 7, 2006 6:48 AM
Posted on December 7, 2006 06:48
Qualifying a gibberish word like “right” with a facile adjective like “hard” does not render either term meaningful. But maybe you were shouting it in your mind. That always makes a banality more profound. Try using ALL CAPS. That way we’ll know when you’re shouting it in your mind.
Posted by Alan | December 7, 2006 9:00 AM
Posted on December 7, 2006 09:00
That’s ok Alan, I don’t want you to listen to me anyway. Just keep doing what you are doing and it will all turn out right.
Posted by Greg | December 7, 2006 1:54 PM
Posted on December 7, 2006 13:54
If you don’t want me to listen to you, you’re on the right track, with the empty buzzwords and hackneyed political insults. Sort of sucks all the content out of what you’re trying to say (whatever that may be) and makes listening a rather pointless endeavour.
Posted by Alan | December 8, 2006 3:51 PM
Posted on December 8, 2006 15:51