Apolitical Staples

We’re still in the post-convention bounce. Give Dion a little while to screw things up and us a little while to run him into the ground.

Our government and policies stand heads above what the Liberals can offer, and Canadians know it.

Jack better roll up his sleaves and get those votes back! The news for Gilles wasn’t so good! Combined, 48% to the Cons/Libs 43% Bloc.
Quebec is a Nation and fiscal balance is on it’s way…hmmmm

Which of the above two would like an election anytime soon??

Our government and policies stand heads above what the Liberals can offer, and Canadians know it.

If Canadians “know it”, then why are they still choosing the Liberals instead?

He’s got an extra bounce. The first is due to constant Lib convention coverage. The second is because he came from behind - thus he got very little scrutiny/negative attention.

It was all candysticks and rainbows.

But he’s about to enter the brutal world of a prime ministerial election. We know Harper can handle it. It’s becoming increasingly obvious Dion isn’t ready for prime time.

One tantrum in a nationally televised debate and he’s done.

“Our government and policies stand heads above what the Liberals can offer, and Canadians know it.”

The pollster seem to be concluding that these numbers further the view that the last election wasn’t an endorsement of the Tory agenda, but a desire to kick out the Liberals. I hate to break it to Conservatives, but the natural order is re-emerging.

If Canadians “know it”, then why are they still choosing th Liberals instead?

Rob, you’re missing the point of the post…. it’s called post-convention bounce.

“Natural order?” WTF is that supposed to be exactly? A kleptocracy run by the Liebrawl party? Seems that’s exactly what some people want.

The natural order means Canadians aren’t conservative, and the Liberal Party is most closely aligned with the majority view. Harper didn’t win, the Liberals lost. Deal with it. The leadership process officially turns the page and people are gravitating back to their comfort zone.

“A kleptocracy run by the Liebrawl party?”

Just curious the last time Alberta didn’t elect a conservative provincial government.

Yee-haw, go get em you crazy consevatives.

” I hate to break it to Conservatives, but the natural order is re-emerging. “

Ah yes, the one party state mantra. When exactly will that renewal thing be occurring?

I am really worried about the polls.for the first time we have a govt that is honest has a vision for the country and isnt just after power.if the liberals win again because the people in ontario vote them in, i will join the first movement for the west to separate that I can find.

Report from Fraser Institute said the federal equalization program may not be legally enforceable. There’s a thought.

Nervous?

Recall I-R polls in 2004. Martin PM since December 2003, Harper becomes leader of CPC

I-R poll April 6-8, 2004:

Lib 35, CPC 28, NDP, 18, BQ 10, Grn 5

I-R poll April 26-28 2004:

Lib 40, CPC 23, NDP 18, BQ 11

I-R poll May 27, 2004 (just before election called by Martin):

Lib 37, CPC 26, NDP 18, BQ 12

Here are the I-R polls just before the 2006 election call:

I-R poll November 15, 2005:

Lib 36, CPC 27, NDP 16, BQ 13, Grn 6

I-R poll November 24, 2005:

Lib 34, CPC 30, NDP 16, BQ 15, Grn 5

What does this tell us? Campaigns matter, for one. The other thing it tells us how much the provincial strength of the Bloc distorts national politics. The most worrying line in the latest poll for Dion is “Bloc unchanged.” The next election will be largely determined by who comes out best in the Dion vs. Duceppe and Harper vs. Duceppe battles for the Quebec “federalist” votes. This is key for Dion. The Libs are nowhere in the West, and will not win 100 seats in Ont. like under Chretien. To win, Dion has to win big against Duceppe. I don’t see it happening. Maybe he can win some seats back from the Bloc on Montreal Island, but that’s it. Harper is after the Bloc’s vote all over Quebec. I like his chances.

http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/9Dec2006background.pdf

here’s the whole poll- take a look.

We will see how long this lasts especially because we learned something about Mr. Dion this week- you poke him and he is prone to snapping.

You may have something there, Greg. We will see. Unfortunately for Mr. Harper, soft NDP voters have learned something about him during the last 11 months, too. He is no centrist. He has succeeded in convincing them that their only option is to vote Liberal. Dumb, dumb, dumb.

Here’s what I’ve seen from Dion that makes him roadkill. He changes his mind when he comes under criticism. Lets review shall we. Quebec is a nation? At first adamantly opposed to such, but prior to the vote and a one on one with Harper, he changes his mind. His dual citizenship, first he’s adamant he will not abandon it, matter of fact he was down right “petulant” with the reporters asking him about it, now he’s saying he will if its going to effect the public opinion polls . SSM vote, first he was going to whip the vote, then he openly admts Harper would have an advantage if he did that so he changed his mind. And he’s only been opposition leader for how long? There are many more issues coming that will test Stephanies ability to lead his party in opposition. Latest is that those leadership candidates that want safe seats (Bob, Gerry, Justin, and Martha) as per standard liberal operating proceedure are expecting the leader to do whats needed to get them there. Trouble is that the “safe seats” they have their eyes on are already taken and the resident MP’s seem to be “reluctant” to step aside. You can bet that Dion is going to have a big headache trying to decide whether to upset the supporters of Kennedy (the ones that got him to the dance hoping for party renewal), the supporters of Rae (Power Corp and the establishment and the adscam status quo) or the riding asociations that want to retain their known quantity. Its what Bucky Dither’s would call “local riding issues”. And Dion can only watch helplessly as Harper keeps throwing those “contentious” wedge issues that divide the liberal caucus.

Though I think Harper will have the measure of Dion at the next election, Steve V is right that the last election was a much a rejection of the Martin Liberals as it was an endorsement of the Conservatives. East of the Manitoba-Ontario border, where 2/3rd’s of the seats are situated, the Liberal Party is stll viewed as the natural party of government.

A sobering thought that Conservative cannot afford to ignore.

It is post convention bounce. Furthermore, these polls with their huge margins of error can hardly be considered acurate

I love these whiny Albertans. “Waaaah! If the rest of the country doesn’t go along with my petulant whining, I’ll separate! Waaaaaaahhh!”

Whiny Albertans? What about the continual belief of the “cultural elites” in Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal that they control all of Canada, and continue to ram their beliefs onto the rest of the country.

In case you haven’t seen the latest census numbers, a lot of the current Albertans are like-minded Ontarians and Atlantic Canadians who have moved out there recently. I am also becoming tempted to move out there one of these days and become one of those “whiny Albertans”, as I’m getting tired of these other artsy downtown Toronto “champagne socialists” that I live near to, who have a belief that they’re vision of the world is utopia, and anyone who believes differently are a bunch of rednecks.

I have to admit, I was a tad concerned at the numbers at first. Even considering a post convention bounce, I don’t want to see an anti-conservative trend.

All my fears were allayed earlier this week when I saw Dion on the National with Peter Mansbridge. This guy is a muddle-headed, incoherent babbler. He’s just a goof. We’re going to shred him.

The last election being a “rejection” works both ways.

Yes they repudiated the Libs, but many voters took to heart the “Harper is scary” meme. Recall the latest attack ads days before that saw majority dwindle to minority.

Harper was succeptable to that.

Now its spent. Harper is a known commodity, and now Dion is succeptable to being “defined”.

All these Ontarians and Atlantics moving to Alberta is fine, but what good is winning seats in Alberta with 30,000 majorities, when seats are being lost in Ontario and Atlantic Canada by narrow margins.

I hope anonymous is right. Didn’t Kim Campbell go into the 1993 election with a big lead on the back of “covention” bounce. We know what happened then?

Same could hppened to Dion.

Does anyone know what those polling figures wre at the start of the ‘93 election ?

At the start of the 93 campaign, Angus Reid was as follows (September 20, 1993):

PC 35; Lib 35; NDP 8; BQ 11; Reform 11

Something called Conquest Research had the PC’s ahead (September 14, 1993):

PC 36; Lib 33; NDP 8; BQ 10; Reform 11.

Results on Election Day:

PC 16; Lib 41; NDP 7; BQ 14; Reform 19.

if you noticed, the n for Ontario was 200-300, as well as for Quebec.