How about a poll from the less than reliable Ekos Research Associates.
Liberals: 40%
Conservatives: 34%
New Democrats: 10%
Bloc Quebecois: 8%
Greens: 8%
The NDP are sinking and Jack doesn't want to swim...
It is has been said that Stephen Harper has wanted to reconsolidate the electoral map with a true left-right split. I always assumed that meant the NDP vs. Conservatives but with Stephane Dion at the helm of the Liberals maybe they will replace the NDP in that calculation. I know it is early and all but the NDP must be absolutely freaked about what is going on with their poll numbers as it appears that Liberal gains in the polls are at the direct expense of the NDP and Conservative numbers are pretty steady (within the margin of error anyway).
What is the NDP play now?
Comments (17)
The NDP is in trouble because of Harper’s policies. Status of women funding, same sex marriage, global warming denial are combining in a most unpleasant way. NDP voters are saying “Christ, they really mean it” and are switching to the Liberals. Jack is going to have a really hard time stopping that movement (especially if he keeps siding with Ezra Levant on issues). Good luck.
Posted by Greg | December 10, 2006 3:58 PM
Posted on December 10, 2006 15:58
If dippers are running to the liberals in order to save the communist revolution in Kanada then what we need to do is point out the obvious takeover of the NDP by the liberals (or is it the opposite?).
Posted by Real Conservative | December 10, 2006 5:07 PM
Posted on December 10, 2006 17:07
Ya RC, whatever.
Posted by Greg | December 10, 2006 5:13 PM
Posted on December 10, 2006 17:13
Again, Harper’s got it all under control.
Posted by Danté | December 10, 2006 5:35 PM
Posted on December 10, 2006 17:35
The Bloc fugures don’t look too good either.
Posted by The Fog is Clearing | December 10, 2006 5:38 PM
Posted on December 10, 2006 17:38
After the country gets to see a stuttering, stammering Dion flounder about in english the polls will turn back.
Let Dion try to tour the country making speeches in english and see what happens to public opinion.
And just for Sinister Greg: nobody really gives a rat’s ass about the SOW lobby group. They will not be missed…Maybe Harper should get a dog and name it Judy Rebick…
Posted by colin | December 10, 2006 5:46 PM
Posted on December 10, 2006 17:46
So far, Dions message to the west is falling on deaf ears. There is not much he can do to gain votes on the prairies other than to come over from the dark side and repent his liberal ways. On second thought, he still wouldn’t get a vote, westerners can smell a drugstore cowboy when they see one.
Posted by Silverwinger | December 10, 2006 6:12 PM
Posted on December 10, 2006 18:12
nobody really gives a rat’s ass about the SOW lobby group.
Well nobody who votes CPC anyway. As for those who do, they have a choice. Last election they probably voted NDP. This next one, well I suspect more than a few will vote Liberal just to put the screws to Harper. Go ahead, call them “sheeple” I just know you want to.
Posted by Greg | December 10, 2006 6:12 PM
Posted on December 10, 2006 18:12
If this poll is accurate, and the Liberals are gung-ho for an election now, there is no way the Bloc would let the CPC government fall, not at 8%. We may not have an election for a long, long time.
Posted by orval | December 10, 2006 6:25 PM
Posted on December 10, 2006 18:25
Did a little research on Duceppe’s “national” and Quebec election percentages:
1997 10.67% nationally, 37.9% in Quebec 2000 10.72% nationally, 39.9% in Quebec 2004 12.4% nationally, 48.9% in Quebec 2006 10.46% nationally, 42.1% in Quebec
If Ekos is right and Bloc is at 8% “nationally”, that would translate to roughly 30-32% in Quebec, a collapse of 12-10%.
Duceppe is not suicidal. If it’s a trend, then Duceppe will keep Harper in office as long as possible. With 54 Bloc MPs on side, Harper’s 125 minority is bullet-proof. Maybe we’ll have a 2009 election after all?
Posted by orval | December 10, 2006 6:41 PM
Posted on December 10, 2006 18:41
Alot of nervous Tories around it seems.
Duceppe will support tories if they provide 3.9 billion to Quebec in the budget.
Now what do you do?
Posted by quebecliberal | December 10, 2006 6:56 PM
Posted on December 10, 2006 18:56
The Bloc figures don’t look too good either.
Posted by The Fog is Clearing | December 10, 2006 7:03 PM
Posted on December 10, 2006 19:03
I expect to see a Tory-NDP tag team against the Liberals as you saw during the last election. Whether or not this will work is questionable.
Quebecliberal, at this point I doubt the Bloc will hold that threat. They’ll meet in the middle, the Bloc will claim to be ‘satisfied’ and will move on.
Either way, it seems from the trend of the recent polls that most of the Liberal gains are coming at the expense of the NDP, not the Tories. I suspect that there will be a little reverse flow back to the Tories from right of center liberals but until the election this will be too small to notice.
Posted by Southernontarioan | December 10, 2006 7:06 PM
Posted on December 10, 2006 19:06
Two causes:
1) Convention bump
2) A move to the left will more quickly give you gains from the left, while corresponding losses to the right will take a tad more time - but not much.
When the CPC starts reminding folks that the Libs have essentially taken an NDP platform, the nervous nellies won’t be the CPC, but the right leaning Liberals.
Particularily since the big social conservative boogey man - SSM - is off the table, and Harper’s talking like it won’t be back.
Without a fractured right, trying to occupy both the left and center right is, impossible - and politically dangerous.
The old adage that when you try to have it all you may end up with nothing may be fitting in a few months from now.
Posted by Chester | December 10, 2006 7:28 PM
Posted on December 10, 2006 19:28
I wonder how much is due to bin Layton’s leadership? Odd that the Liberal party is now seen as the socialist party of Canada. Perhaps not surprising considering Dion’s penchant for statism and wealth confiscation. Liberal party has come a long, long way but in the wrong direction.
Posted by johndoe124 | December 10, 2006 7:42 PM
Posted on December 10, 2006 19:42
“Well nobody who votes CPC anyway.”
“Go ahead, call them “sheeple” I just know you want to.”
Er…yeah.
Posted by Alan | December 11, 2006 8:22 AM
Posted on December 11, 2006 08:22
I actually have a lot more confidence in the ordinary people than I do in the chattering classes. They have more finely tuned bullshit detectors.
But the people will only make their decisions based on what arguments are presented to them. And so it’s up to Harper to make the case for a non-statist government that plays a smaller role in people’s lives at home and a government that has a pro-liberal-democratic orientation abroad.
Can he do it? His task is clear.
We’ll see.
Posted by Ben (The Tiger in Exile)
|
December 11, 2006 9:33 AM
Posted on December 11, 2006 09:33