The post-convention bounce that the Liberals received is evaporating just as Stephane Dion started his Paul Martin impression, funny how that works. Here is the latest from Ipsos-Reid.
Liberals: 36%
Conservatives: 34%
New Democrats: 13%
Bloc Quebecois: 10%
Greens: 5%
Darrell Bricker points out what I thought (but haven't written, damn!) about the "far-right, neo-conservative, blah, blah, blah" that Dion has been spewing.
...Bricker said the poll shows the NDP is "remaining constantly back," and it suggests the reason is because Dion is drawing support away. Dion has repeatedly described the Harper government as being "far-right" and out of touch with most Canadians, particularly on the critical issue of the environment and global warming.
Bricker said it appears this message is selling well with people who voted NDP in the last election.
"I think this is the start of a new trend," said Bricker. "I'd now start asking the question: Whither the NDP?"
However, I do think that reports of the demise of the NDP are exaggerated. Also the strength in the Liberals numbers are due to their recent high Quebec polling. If that starts falling then their national numbers will drop back to 30% in no time.

Comments (18)
Greg, I’d have more faith in Bricker’s thoughts if he hadn’t been so wrong in his predictions for the last two elections.
Posted by Rondi | December 16, 2006 9:28 AM
Posted on December 16, 2006 09:28
Funny, I agree with Rondi in some respects. Ipsos has been wrong a lot. However, I don’t think that is helpful to the Conservatives, in this case. We will see when SES does its next national poll.
Also, how much of that massive 34% CPC support is made up of Alberta voters, where there is absolutely no chance for seat growth?
Posted by Greg | December 16, 2006 10:50 AM
Posted on December 16, 2006 10:50
I think Dion is getting some bad advice from his handlers. People are getting tired of the “far-right mean-spirited government” stuff.
Having said that, I hope it continues. No new ideas; just negative propaganda. Canadians will see through this smear for the lack of substance that the Liberal party still is.
Posted by Joanne C. | December 16, 2006 12:16 PM
Posted on December 16, 2006 12:16
I think Canadians have seen through the Conservative smear campaign for what it is and the disastrous policies for what they are.
Posted by SLG | December 16, 2006 2:01 PM
Posted on December 16, 2006 14:01
It’s interesting that the 2 “rational” parties now total 70% and the single purpose or one-dimensional utopians are down to 30% of Canadians. In other words if we are to consider the Liberals as somewhat sane and maybe a bit less corrupt than they were during the previous century, then Canadians are starting to say that they want pragmatic solutions and not fringe parties at the margin.
I’ve seen the marginal parties scoring as high as: Dippers 20%, Blocheads 12% and Greens 9%. Then it looked like nearly half the country wanted to vote for a mono-purpose party of some sort and I thought we were doomed.
This is good news. Two strong parties competing for the votes of Canadians will make us a better country than the Pizza Parliament that I sometimes thought we were heading for.
Posted by nomdenet | December 16, 2006 2:17 PM
Posted on December 16, 2006 14:17
SLG..pot to kettle ..come in..disasterous for who ?
You? your leftist buddies? good.Suck on it for a while, maybe it will get sweeter with time.
Smear campaign? where were you the last 13 years when your puppet masters were spinng all those lies about the conservatives?
Posted by kursk | December 16, 2006 2:17 PM
Posted on December 16, 2006 14:17
nomdenet
I for one may end up voting for the Liberals (if I bother to vote), not because they are great, but only because Harper is crap and I don’t want to divide the vote. I suspect that is the case with a lot of others as well (on both sides of the aisle ). That’s what happens when the electoral system is as screwed up as FPTP.
Posted by Greg | December 16, 2006 2:36 PM
Posted on December 16, 2006 14:36
Actually Greg, that you would consider giving your vote to a party proven to engage in corrupt activity shows a lot about your character, or lack thereof.
You just want your share of the loot. That says enough about how screwed up our electoral politics is.
Posted by colin | December 16, 2006 5:06 PM
Posted on December 16, 2006 17:06
Greg, a lot of blue Liberals are going to see the ballast of their boat tilting left as you get on board and they will switch to the Conservatives boat. The Conservatives boat will appeal to many new passengers, particularly in the cities where SSM is no longer an issue.
So the wasted votes on the left will have to move to the Liberals which means that Harper can finally move the goal posts to the right a little bit , which shows that the electoral system is working just fine.
May the best boat win.
Posted by nomdenet | December 16, 2006 6:32 PM
Posted on December 16, 2006 18:32
Sinister Greg:
It’s up to you, but given how so-called “strategic voting” has been a bust more often than not, you may be better off sticking with your principled choice, whatever that may be.
S-Voting failed the centre-left federally in ‘06 (despite Buzz’s efforts), and in Ontario in ‘99. It arguably worked in Ontario in ‘03 and federally in ‘04, but in each of those cases, the centre-right party either ran a bad campaign from start to end (Eves ‘03) or fumbled the ball at the end (Harper ‘04, though even then, the Grits were held to a minority and the stage was set for ‘06).
… Of course, it’d be better for my team if you follow Buzz’s path - so on second thought, knock yourself out, and be as “strategic” as you like!
Posted by Jason Hickman | December 16, 2006 7:48 PM
Posted on December 16, 2006 19:48
“how much of that massive 34% CPC support is made up of Alberta voters, where there is absolutely no chance for seat growth?”
I’m glad to see you’re conceding the NDP and Liberals have no chance to win anything in Alberta.
Posted by Alan | December 16, 2006 10:20 PM
Posted on December 16, 2006 22:20
How much of that Liberal support is concentrated in Toronto?
Posted by Chris | December 17, 2006 3:57 AM
Posted on December 17, 2006 03:57
Also, how much of that massive 34% CPC support is made up of Alberta voters, where there is absolutely no chance for seat growth?
You keep flogging the idea in practically every poll thread that somehow the CPC numbers are being artificially inflated by higher support in Alberta, yet you’ve never shown any evidence whatsoever that this is the case.
It’s a shame that the articulate, reasonable Sinister Greg of ‘05 was replaced by the frothing, raving Sinister Greg of ‘06…
Posted by The Invisible Hand | December 17, 2006 5:27 AM
Posted on December 17, 2006 05:27
It’s a shame that the articulate, reasonable Sinister Greg of ‘05 was replaced by the frothing, raving Sinister Greg of ‘06…
Actually it is the disillusioned Greg of 06. I thought Harper got it. I was wrong.
Posted by Greg | December 17, 2006 7:50 AM
Posted on December 17, 2006 07:50
As for strategic voting, ya it sucks. I wish we had a rational voting system, but no one seems interested. In my case whether I vote or not will make no difference. I live in a riding that has been Liberal since God was new to the neighbourhood.
Posted by Greg | December 17, 2006 7:58 AM
Posted on December 17, 2006 07:58
Yes, to echo Chris, how much of that Liberal vote is concentrated in Toronto, especially downtown.
The Conservatives are at 37% in Ontario in this poll, so they are doing quite fine. Exclude Toronto from the Ontario numbers, and the Conservatives are at a much higher percentage, and in a position to gain more seats from the Ontario 40 in the last election.
Posted by TorontoCrawler | December 17, 2006 9:00 AM
Posted on December 17, 2006 09:00
Yea, I always wish that the polling companies would take a larger sample than 1000ish, so we could see the poll broken down by region with a much smaller margin of error to those regional sample sizes. It would give us a much better idea of how an election would go.
Posted by Chris | December 17, 2006 1:46 PM
Posted on December 17, 2006 13:46
“Actually it is the disillusioned Greg of 06. I thought Harper got it. I was wrong.”
You thought what? That he was a Trudeau centralist, a multiculturist, a socialist? That he wouldn’t play politics to win at politics? Ha.
Haha.
hee.
Posted by Alan | December 17, 2006 11:58 PM
Posted on December 17, 2006 23:58