Apolitical Staples

I think they would be perfectly happy to fall on the upcoming budget.

I guess you are assuming they will solve the “fiscal imbalance” to Quebec’s satisfaction then? Otherwise, Bob might be onto something.

A CPC - NDP deal will get “climate change” off the table. (Note I say “climate change,” formerly known as “global warming” or “Kyoto,” and not “environment” -they are not the same thing). NDP will support co-authored Clean Air Act which has some Kyoto-friendly language in it. Government will not fall on this.

Bloc will support CPC budget. Government will not fall on the budget.

There will be no federal election in 2007. The Quebec and Ontario prov elections will be held first.

My guess is 2008, or even spring 2009 (after Afghan mission is over and there is a new US president in office).

If there would be an election this year, both NDP and BQ would likely lose ground to either CPC or Liberals or both or even Greens. For what possible reason would the Bloc or the NDP want to bring that on?

Right after 2006 election Bloc said that they would keep CPC in office “a long time.” I believe them.

Harper has interest in stringing mandate out. Dion has no experience in opposition. Leader and Deputy Leader of Opposition are both white male university professors and newcomers to politics. They will find opposition grind frustrating, and will make rookie mistakes (Dion already has by making the French citizenship non-story into a major negative story for him). Public will quickly become bored and disenchanted with them as time goes on and has Harper does stuff the Liberals never did.

The Liberals need a fundraiser and party-builder with a long history and deep roots in the party to make it bloom again and re-earn trust - neither Dion or Ignatieff have the skills to do this, nor the base in the party to force radical change and modernization of the party apparatus.

The Liberals have missed a once in a lifetime chance to re-invent themselves as something more than just the lust for power and office. It would have been better for them had they been reduced to 2 seats a la 1993. They think they have been called for a penalty, not that they have been defeated. But they have been defeated, and they need to face up to the reasons why.

Canuck, I like your analysis. Then the Hildebeast gets into the White House in 2008. There’s not much traction anymore for the Librano$ tying Harper to Bush or “scary” Republicans, it just won’t play.

Then Harper gets in by a landslide…the only Conservative government in the world. The enterprising Americans look to Canada as their haven. They start pouring across our borders … Lou Dobbs frets about brain drain .. Quebec changes their official language to something commercially useful .. Spanish …

There’s one problem in this entire line of thought. The NDP would never endorse anything that didn’t have a very obvious pro-Kyoto tilt (if not open embracing of Kyoto) and for the Conservatives that is a non-starter. If they pull a 180 on an issue such as Kyoto, it would be suicide. Likewise, it would be suicide for Jack to double-back on Kyoto.

The gap is just too wide.

Jack will probably get wording inserted into the Clean Air Act that talks about adhering to Kyoto. All the Liberals did was talk about Kyoto, so that should probably be good enough.

I also don’t think any serious person believes we can meet Kyoto targets any time soon without destroying the economy.

Layton has already used language about meeting “science-based targets” without specifically referring to Kyoto.

If a beefed up Clean Air Act is seen as a serious effort to reduce greenhouse gases, then I don’t think specifics about Kyoto will matter. Both the Conservatives and the Dippers can spin whatever wording gets included in the bill.

In the end, all that will matter is a bill that is seen as a serious effort, and a recognition of who supports it, who doesn’t, and who did what in the past when they had a chance.

It’s why all these moves will almost certainly isolate Dion on global warming. Look for it.