Apolitical Staples

It’s not wise to look at changes from poll to poll. You need a baseline. I work off the Jan 2006 election results and then figure out a trend.

In January 2006 election the NDP got 17.44%. If Decima is right (big if) then the NDP numbers represent only a 2.5 % drop, not 4 %. Again, its the trend not the numbers that count. The trend for NDP throughout 2006 has been consistently below 17.5%. NDP support is shrinking, not growing.

For political survival, Layton has to delay an election to find time to reverse this trend. This is why there will be a Conservative-NDP “deal” on Clean Air Act. Conservatives + NDP + 2 independents = 156. It will pass, and will effectively defuse any possible Dion attack on the environmental front.

Similarly, Duceppe has to be worried by both Conservative and Liberal growth in Quebec among francophones at his expense. If he brings down the government on the budget, he will lose seats in Quebec and help the Liberals recover in that province. He wants neither, or his goose as Bloc leader is cooked. So the Bloc will support the budget, and combined Liberal-NDP nay votes are no where near enough to kill the budget.

I doubt there will be an election in 2007. 2008 is possible, but early 2009 is better (after Canadian exit from southern Afghanistan and with new President in the White House).

MSM and pundits are obsessing over “politics” (polls, shuffles, election fever) while Harper is obsessing over “governing.” Harper’s view seems to be that if you govern well, the politics will take care of itself. Paul Martin had fabulous polls in December 2003 and all he to do was govern well and he’d still be PM today.

A Canuck,

You are using logic and enlightened self interest. Politics are not driven by such things. Emotion is a bigger factor. The NDP especially has historically voted against budgets (on principle). Then the government falls, there’s an election, the minority government disappears to be replaced by a majority government. Oh yeah, the NDP lose a lot of MPs in the process and all leverage over the political process.

Every single NDP MP + 2 independents would have to vote for a Conservative budget for it to pass. PLUS Harper would have to give them a budget they could vote for. What makes you think he will be so accomodating?

Plaid: Didn’t NDP vote for the Liberal budget of 2005?

There’s no emotion right now. Gomery hearings were emotional and shocking. The dominant emotion was revulsion against the Liberals, and it was their undoing.

There’s nothing like that today. Canadians are generally content with the government. They seem competent (compared to the last crew), aren’t screwing up badly anywhere, and, most of all, they are not ripping us off!

The best Layton and Duceppe can expect from an immediate election are the exact same results from January 2006. Why take a gamble and lose ground? No, Harper Govt will have to do something egregiously stupid or scandulous before any emotional fury can be whipped up to defeat them. There is no emotion in Kyoto, despite what pundits like to say, nor with Afghanistan deployment. “The Quebecois are a nation within a united Canada” motion, a piece of political fluff over which so many got “angry” and over which a cabinet minister resigned to abstain “on principle” (?), is all but forgotten now.

Layton is not going to vote against a tax-cut budget which helps union members when there is no other reasons to defeat the goverment (general incompetence, scandal, etc). Harper is going to dare Layton and Dion to defeat him on the budget, and Layton and Dion would be very smart to avoid the trap and live to fight another day. They need a Conservative scandal to whip up emotion. Harper is too good a politician to let them have one.

Plaid, you miss Canuck’s point that the Bloq will/may/might support the budget. If so … doesn’t matter about the Liberals and NDP.

FWIW, I completely agree with Canuck.

Cheers, lance

This is why I feel there won’t be an election soon. It’s not in the Bloc’s interest to bring down Harper and chance a Liberal comeback in Quebec with Dion. There are no percentages for Duceppe there. Harper’s minority is as stable as a majority right now. Why would Harper take a chance on an election now when a majority is not a sure thing?

The Lib numbers aren’t finished falling.

The more exposure Dion will get the worse for the Libs. Why?

Dion’s bad with people. He appears testy, condescending and arrogant. Probably because he is testy condescending and arrogant. His handlers will no doubt work on that image, but it doesn’t appear to take much to get him going - and that was in the context of this post nomination after glow.

I can’t imagine what he’ll be like in the heat of battle mid-election (actually I can and it gives me warm thoughts of a possible conservative majority).

“He appears testy, condescending and arrogant. Probably because he is testy condescending and arrogant. His handlers will no doubt work on that image, but it doesn’t appear to take much to get him going… .”

This could just as easily apply to Harper.

Ace,

Right you were. But he has behaved like anything but the angry Harper we saw in opposition. Certainly Dion could morph into a more affable fellow in the PM’s seat. But his problem is that he won’t go into the next election fighting a corrupt regime - a benefit Harper had as many folks were able to overlook his perceived character flaws.

On a personal level, I believe Harper has exceded expectations for a lot of pre-2006 election Harper skeptics. Many folks who held their noses and voted Liberal or BQ in the last election because they couldn’t stomach Harper’s well-promoted anger are gonna take a considered second look.

The funny thing about the angry Harper meme was that it was almost completely derived from liberal spin. I don’t think there is a single example out there where Harper snapped at the reporters, particularily on one on one interviews, the way Dion has in his brief tenure.

While the media desperately sought out any hint to fullfull its predetermined story line of the angry Harper,

they appear to whistle past the large pink poka dotted elephant that is Dion’s testiness - giving him a complete pass to date.

“Many folks who held their noses and voted Liberal or BQ in the last election because they couldn’t stomach Harper’s well-promoted anger are gonna take a considered second look.”

Perhaps, but many who voted NDP to punish the Liberals last time will have to decide whether they want to help elect a majority Conservative government this time by voting NDP or Green—more of the same but more so.