Apolitical Staples

Queue the libloggers spinning antics….

Where is SES? They are driving me nuts. The Sun chain must be cheap buggers. Give them money for a poll already.

one thing remains constant. the libs are well ahead of harper in ontario and québec…where it counts.

I think SES will only do a poll on the same topic every 3 months during non-campaign periods, from past patterns.

Seriously, polls that are done immediately after a convention, or during the week between Christmas and New Years such as this one… how reflective or accurate can they really be. What’s the point? Decima, which really has little credibility, has been poll happy, this is like their 3rd poll since the Liberal convention.

Jeff, so what? Ontario and Quebec are huge places…. really there should be multiple regions within them, and popular vote doesn’t translate into seats. If all those Liberal votes in Ontario are concentrated in Toronto, then the Tories are well ahead of the game… I don’t think they’re any lower in this poll for Ontario than they were in the 2006 election results when they got 40 seats.

It is also known from the last 2 Quebec-only CROP polls that in the Quebec City region, the Tories are ahead of the BQ and Liberals and polling higher than they were in the 06 election, so regardless of the overall Quebec numbers, they’re not losing any seats in the Quebec City area.

The breakout of Ontario said 40-35 for the Liberals. This is the same as during the 2006 election. Reading between the lines I would guess the Liberals have gained in Quebec at the Conservatives expense.

Take it from an informed ex quebecer, La Belle Province will surprise the country yet again come the next election…Dion knows it, so does Duceppe and they’re both **ing their pants right now…Actually my prediction is Duceppe will soon after leave the decimated Bloc to go and replace Boisclair in the PQ…It will then be that Party’s last chance, if no major offence from Ottawa offuscates the french, then it will be goodbye separatist movement of the near majority type.

Decima had the following on November 28, 2005, the day the Martin Govt fell:

Liberals - 36 Cons - 28 NDP - 19 Bloc - 12

If we are at the eve of an election, then I like Harper’s chances better now than November ‘05.

The only thing these polls are good for is showing the trend that the NDP is weakening. This has to trouble Layton. I doubt NDP will bring government down on the environment. Same goes for Duceppe - if it is true that the Liberals are gaining strength in Quebec, why would Bloc bring down Harper government over the budget? (Grain of salt: even with increasing Quebec “strength” the Liberals are still weak among francophones and off Montreal island)

I agree with metalguru: the game is in Quebec and that province will surprise us. There will be a CPC breakthrough everywhere except on West Island of Montreal. Not like ‘84, but surprising nonetheless.

While I have the floor, I predict there won’t be a cabinet shuffle. Instead, “climate change” will be separated from the Ministry of Environment (they are different things) and will have its own minister, perhaps a minister without portfolio in charge of formulating a federal climate change policy/strategy. Rona Ambrose will stay on as Environment Minister, where she is doing a good job. If it was me, I would bring back into Cabinet Michael Chong as the new Minister for Climate Change Policy.

I think the most amusing aspect of this is the lack of comment about the ‘post-convention’ bubble bursting.

Funny that the MSM (maybe we should just call them the Liberal Media) has steered clear of that angle.

Even the post-convention polls were within the margin of error of a tie, but you’d think the Liberals had a 20 point lead by the tone of the coverage at that time. And now that the Lib’s ‘lead’ has evaporated….not a peep.

I’d love to hear the newsroom conversation about how best to spin the results.

No party should really be jumping for joy over these numbers. The Conservatives are still below the numbers they enjoyed during the election, and here’s a bit of trivia: that amount set a record for the lowest level of popular support achieved by the most popular party in an election (shaving a few tenths of a percent off the old record, set by Paul Martin in 2004).

The electorate simply is not comfortable with the idea of giving any political party a free hand. For this reason, I doubt we’ll see an election until this Fall or next Spring, and the result will be yet another minority government for Stephen Harper.

Yes, a campaign changes everything, and yes Stephen Harper cannot be portrayed as scary anymore — but the Conservatives were still able to eke out a bare victory after the Liberals ran the worst campaign in living memory. That’s not going to be part of the equation either. So, I predict Canadians are going to look at the seat totals and say, “let it ride”.

As for the lack of reporting of a convention bounce: we’re just off the holidays. Nobody is paying attention, except for political geeks who don’t have a life.

Yes, I am aware of the irony of that statement. ;-)