Apolitical Staples

most Canadians simply do not understand how far Canada is behind on major environmental indicators,

Oh, we understand fine. What we want is action, not even more delay.

At the end of this debate, most Canadians will understand the obvious (given that Canadians are not idiots):

that we’ve had no programs in place, and are very far behind after decades of inaction,

and that it can’t be changed overnight.

It would be Dion’s biggest mistake (or more likely a sign of desperation) if he promised quick solutions.

Immediate action steps (vs. empty promises - see Liberal record) yes.

Immediate results, no chance.

I think most Canadians accept this.

This is where Jack Layton will provide political cover for Harper. There will be some shorter-term targets, but both will argue that they’re behind because of Dion’s inaction when he had the chance. I suspect that a beefed up Clean Air Act is already in the works. John Baird will defend it vigorously and get it passed with the help of the NDP. This will isolate both the Liberals and the Greens, and take away Dion’s most bogus claim of being any kind of champion on the environment.

Game, set, match.

Good luck selling that Chester. I have to say though that that has been the CPC message since day one and it hasn’t reflected well for you in the polls on the issue.

This is where Jack Layton will provide political cover for Harper. There will be some shorter-term targets,

What is the up side for Layton? If it looks like he is getting tossed crumbs in exchange for propping up the oil industry, he is dead meat. He will be under tremendous pressure from within the party to get huge changes to the CPC policy. If he doesn’t deliver he is finished.

There won’t be crumbs. The up-side is that he can claim to represent action on progressive issues while the Liberals represent inaction. And Elizabeth May seems more intent on kissing Dion’s ring than on getting anything done, too.

Harper and Layton will be responsible for passing the most historic environmental legislation in this country’s history. What self-respecting progressive would dare to publicly reject that?

It’s a beatiful play, one that’s been in the works for a while now, imo.

Well, I guess we will have to wait and see what they come up with, but I have to say that for it to satisfy the NDP base, it will have to be so big that the CPC base will be hard pressed to cheer for its passage.

Edited - Note: this is a flame free zone.

I disagree with you Greg. Layton has already used language repeatedly stating what he’d like to see in the bill, and it’s not unreasonable. Scientifically-based targets, shorter time frames, etc. He’s also talked about the need to compromise.

Politically, the Tories have to produce a bill that holds water. Jack will help them get there.

In fact, all the public pressure being put on Harper will most likely keep his base in line. If the next election is in part a referendum on the environment, the government has no choice but to produce something that meets a reasonable standard of effectiveness. Many of his supporters know this.

As for Layton, getting a bill with teeth will be an electoral triumph. Nothing puts your own people in place than the chance to do well on election day.

All the pieces are fitting.

I posted this link on my blog. It gives an idea of the kind of support Layton can get from his own side:

Layton is already getting it from progressives. Passing a bill with teeth should set them straight.

It is an interesting prospect. I have my doubts (obviously), but it will not be a dull next few months.

Try this: http://tinyurl.com/y8rvls

Greg,

you must,

and I mean must,

get a copy of Dion’s press conference he just had.

They went after him on the Liberal record and he was incomprehensible at best (something about referring to their economic record in ‘93) to the bizarre,

he made excuses: the hot economy and that we’re oil based.

This, (I kid you not) after going after Harper on the same issue.

Agree with Dennis (ST). Layton’s problem is his base is shrinking. If he waits to “please his base” he won’t have one. Harper and Layton have a mutual interest in defrocking Dion on Kyoto. Layton more than Harper because May is hooked into believing that Dion is so wonderful for the environment.

Layton’s salvation is to play the “NDP gets things done for Canadians in this Parliament” card he played so effectively with Martin. Layton and Harper will make a deal (that’s both reasonable and won’t lose auto-workers’ jobs) and then, with Baird acting for Harper, they will use the deal to bash Dion. Duceppe will stand to one side and let it happen, as he has an interest in having Dion pulled down too. The politics of this are beautiful.

There won’t be an election in 2007, on the environment or on anything else, methinks.

Agree with Dennis (ST). Layton’s problem is his base is shrinking. If he waits to “please his base” he won’t have one.

There is something to be said for this, but on the other hand, if he angers his base he won’t have one either.

Actually, I doubt the NDP base is shrinking that much. Sure they were down in the post-convention polls, but that is to be expected. If the latest from Decima is to be believed they are down 2.5% since the election. Give it a few more months and we will see.

If Layton wants Proportional Representation, he has to prove to Canadians that a minority government can work, as in get the job done with reason and compromise. The environment has been a Dipper thing since…forever. IMO Libs stole it as a way to unite the left by absorbing the NDP. If Jack and Steve can get a REAL long term enviro plan on the table, why would Dippers want another Liberal government in power that is hell bent on ruining their party?

If Jack and Steve can get a REAL long term enviro plan on the table, why would Dippers want another Liberal government in power that is hell bent on ruining their party?

The answer is , of course, they wouldn’t. The problem for both Harper and Layton is being able to convince NDP supporters that Layton has delivered the goods and that Harper can be trusted to enforce any gains made by Layton.

I’m not so sure that Dippers are as antagonistic to a compromise deal with Harper as you do, Greg. Of course, it depends on what the final bill looks like. However, ignoring some of Layton’s louder critics on the left, I get the sense that the party is still behind him. He got an overwhelming vote of confidence at the NDP policy convention. And Layton has already sent signals as to where he’s going. His act to save the Clean Air Act in itself was a strong signal in that direction. Most Dippers know who their real antagonist is: the Liberals. I think they’ll keep that in mind as they forge ahead.

If you look at politics in Canada, it’s those who look like they’re sinking that always end up on top. Why? Because the good ones are always at least one step ahead of the pundits and talking heads. Always.

CTV usually posts video of major political press conferences. For some reason, they’ve deep-sixed Dion’s appearance. Instead, they’ve posted a softball interview he had with Dan Matheson afterwards.

Dennis,

CBC covered his backside, reporting only his initial statements.

Straight, uncritical regurgitation of the Liberal line.

Pretty much business as usual.

How’s the health care wait times thing going btw. You know, one of the Big Five.

Yeah, sheesh,

I can’t believe that in less than a year the Conservatives haven’t completely solved the health care dilemma facing Canadians over the last quarter century.

Point well taken Mark.