Apolitical Staples

You should take note of the dates that this poll was taken (December 8 - 30). So some of those numbers are (a) already out of date and (b) tainted by the post-convention bounce period.

Nice spin, Greg. The numbers show the CPC in trouble everywhere but Alberta. That said, I remain steadfast in my belief that only SES will show us what is really going on.

“The numbers show the CPC in trouble everywhere but Alberta”

December 2006 - CPC Ont - 36%

Federal Election - CPC Ont - 35.1%

Covering your eyes will not make you invisible. Assume that other readers of this site can, you know, read.

If you drill down, these numbers are not encouraging. Most of the Green/NDP support in Quebec, for example, will go to the Liberals meaning they can expect to get to the 25-30 seat range (which is effectively minority territory). Similarly in Ontario, a large portion of the Green/NDP votes will migrate to the Liberals if the race is close in the last week of the campaign.

Look also at the “Best PM” number — Harper is at only 34% (i.e. just about even with his party’s ratings). For an incumbent PM, this cannot possibly be good news because (a) there is no margin for error, and (b) he cannot go negative on the other leaders for fear of driving his own numbers down.

I don’t quite understand why the numbers have not moved in almost a year of reasonably competent governance.

Alan and what are the Liberal numbers across the country, in the different regions? Do you see any pattern? Go back to sleep Alan.

The Liberal increase in Quebec is largely in Montreal, where they dominate anyway. The numbers in Manitoba and Sask are dependent on samples too small to be reliable. In Alberta, they are DOA as always. Liberal numbers in Ontario are not up substantially from the election, and as you know, the majority of their strength is in the GTA. They are down in the Atlantic. Their increase in B.C. comes at the expense of the NDP. CPC numbers are steady there. Again, if you are going to make things up, try to remember that the rest of us can read and do basic addition and subtraction. And do work a bit on your condescension skills. Honestly, I half expect to be told that you’re rubber and I’m glue.

BQ nationally @ 8%, in Quebec @ 36%? If correct, this would be a historic low for the Bloc, non? BQ support may be damaged by strong Conservative appeal to francophones, especially in Quebec City and Beauce areas, but Repentigny by-election shows that Bloc is still hugely dominant in francophone Quebec. Personally I don’t believe Bloc is that low, but if it is, and it is weakening because of a Liberal revival among francophones in la belle province, then don’t expect the Bloc to topple the Harper Government any time soon.

The interesting number as always is the NDP. I don’t think NDP is that weak, especially in Ontario, which poll says there has been a 8% drop. There may be some interest in the Greens, but they, unlike the NDP, don’t have an organization that can translate support into votes and votes into seats.