Further to my post here, it looks the Quebec election campaign will begin around February 21st with an election date around March 26th (h/t NationalNewswatch). That clears the deck for a late March budget and maybe a government falling on a vote on the budget in early April. Not that I am saying it is likely but if there were to be a spring federal election that is how it could happen.
Update: Check out Paul Wells' take.
...I can't shake the very strong hunch that this whole agenda was designed in Ottawa. It's extremely clever, without, at first glance, being too clever by half — in other words, I suspect it'll work.
Comments (5)
Although the house is not sitting in the first 2 weeks of April for the Easter break.
http://www2.parl.gc.ca/housechamberbusiness/ChamberCalendar.aspx?Language=E&Mode=1&Parl=&Ses=
So mid-April is probably the earliest this government could fall. Though, this game could go on longer. Back in 2005 the Liberals introduced their budget in early March and it wasn’t passed until late May I recall.
Posted by bza | February 5, 2007 5:00 PM
Posted on February 5, 2007 17:00
I’m still not sure how this all plays out at the federal level, at least in terms of specifics. Hard to see any of the parties voting against a Quebec-friendly budget, for one thing. For another, not sure how the environment plays into all of this either. Jack, for example, wants a deal before the budget. Why? Would he vote for the deal but not the budget?
Stange things happening, folks.
Posted by Dennis (Second Thoughts) | February 5, 2007 5:34 PM
Posted on February 5, 2007 17:34
As I said at my place, are they in danger of raising expectations so high in Quebec that no amount of federal cash will be seen as “enough”.
Posted by Greg | February 5, 2007 5:58 PM
Posted on February 5, 2007 17:58
Charest is in the mid-30s in all the polls that I have seen. If you take away the island of Montreal, my guess is that he is in the high-20s/low-30s in the rest of Quebec. How can an incumbent Premier win a provincial election with that kind of poll rating?
The PQ numbers are also in the mid-30s. However, due to their concentrated support in the francophone areas, that could easily translate into minority government territory for Boisclair.
Can a Federal budget just 6 days before a Quebec vote - especially when there is an assumption of at least $2B coming to Quebec - make any difference?
I am not sure there are any complicated federal calculations in what Charest is doing. He has to call an election now or in the Fall (or wait for Year 5 which just about guarantees a defeat). He is hoping that now will be better.
I fear that it will not.
People forget, but before Boisclair’s foibles and Landry’s eruptions, Charest was deeply unpopular in Quebec. Harper or Dion may not be able to help him at all.
Posted by cb | February 5, 2007 6:12 PM
Posted on February 5, 2007 18:12
Dennis, David Akin on Duffy spelled out the federal angle. A Que. friendly budget helps the Libs in Que. during an election, that’s a given.
How can the federal Liberals raise ruckus on that without being seen as supporting the separatists? How can the BQ criticize a Que. friendly budget without being seen as hypocrites?
How does Dion, of all people, vote against a budget that gives a federalist gov’t the best chance to win in Que? He’ll be forced to flip-flop again on the budget issue and look more like a fool.
This is a one, two, three punch that is once again indicitive of Harper’s long-term thinking. and like most long-term plans, almost impossible to block once it’s started in motion.
Cheers, lance
Posted by Lance | February 5, 2007 10:39 PM
Posted on February 5, 2007 22:39